With Germany paralyzed and growing threats both within and outside the EU's borders, what Europe needed was a new turmoil that threatened other great powers. But that is exactly what France is facing today, with a vote of no confidence expected today that could bring down the government.
The shaky minority government established by Prime Minister Michel Barnier just three months ago began to wobble badly on Monday after he invoked an unusual constitutional mechanism to force a vote on an austerity budget.
For Barnier to survive, far-right opposition leader Marine Le Pen and members of the National Assembly must abstain from today's vote on a no-confidence motion tabled by left-wing parties. but Mr Le Pen said: She said she was ready to support the left in ousting Mr. Barnier.
The austerity budget, which includes hugely unpopular social security reforms, is aimed at reining in France's spiraling national deficit, which is well above the euro zone's acceptable levels. This commentator provides a useful summary of what is at stake for the European economy.
If the budget is rejected and the government collapses as a result, financial markets could be thrown into turmoil. Some scenarios are outlined here. A caretaker prime minister may be appointed, but new parliamentary elections may not be legally held for several months.
But the crisis is political in nature, largely the result of the turmoil caused by Macron after Le Pen's National Rally came first in last May's European elections. To everyone's surprise, Macron dissolved parliament and called snap elections to keep the far-right out of power, but a deadlock ensued in parliament. Macron's centrist party was defeated by the left-wing coalition NPF, leaving the president in a lame duck situation.
In a prescient column in the Guardian in September, European Policy Center analyst Paul Taylor wrote that Macron is not a moderate left-wing candidate, but a challenger to conservatives at the head of a minority government. He warned that by appointing him, he was risking his own destiny and that of France. In the hands of Le Pen. She will be the kingmaker with the power to pull the plug on Barnier whenever she wants.
Sure enough, to avoid being sidelined by left-wing votes, Mr. Barnier had to respond to the National Rally's demands again and again, and in the process, Ms. Le Pen's standing among voters increased. “Mr. Barnier may still believe that he can criticize Ms. Le Pen's bluff and prevent the censure motion from passing, but I don't know how he knows the numbers,” Paul says. . “In any case, he already appears weak and severely dependent. He has given Ms. Le Pen further legitimacy by proposing policy cuts and new budget concessions. Each time, Le Pen looks like a Robin Hood stealing money for pensioners, sick people and householders. All of this could further widen her electoral base.”
Could this crisis lead to Macron's resignation and an early presidential election? The president repeated denied the possibility of resigninginsisted that no matter what, he would remain at the Elysée Palace until his term ends in 2027.
But Paul senses a shift in the calculus of far-right leaders. “Mr. Le Pen appears to have escalated the crisis since prosecutors in the embezzlement trial asked for a prison sentence and a five-year ban from public office.” That would effectively mean that she This will prevent him from running in the next presidential election in 2027. She may be determined to oust Mr Macron and bring forward the presidential vote before the court rules on March 31st. Although this may be a long way off, the national mood is full of anger and dissatisfaction. ”
In any case, he added, this does not make France look like the strong European leader that Macron has long sought to position.
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“A combination of political paralysis, social unrest and fiscal incontinence, with no hope of early treatment, has left France looking like the sick man of Europe.”
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