With fresh US funding, Ukraine must not repeat 2023’s mistakes

The long-awaited U.S. military aid has arrived after months of delays amid a deteriorating strategic situation. On the way to Kyiv.

If Ukraine is to survive, it must use its aid wisely.

By a vote of 311-112, the House passed the $95 billion bill. aid bill It includes $61 billion for Ukraine.of senate Passed by a vote of 79-18, President Biden signed into law.

This support would allow the Ukrainians to halt Russian advances and perhaps reverse some of the recent gains, but it does not make it possible. recapture In 2022, vast tracts of eastern and southern tracks were captured.

Last summer, the Ukrainian military wasted many resources and many soldiers on fruitless operations. attack.

While the Russian military proved unable to sustain advances deep into Ukraine in 2022, it proved more adept at defensive warfare.

dug in the back reinforced line It was several miles deep and protected by minefields with artillery and helicopter support, inflicting heavy losses on the attackers.

In the first weeks of the long-awaited attack, 20 percent Ukrainian equipment was destroyed or damaged. A Western-trained mechanized brigade lost 28 of its 99 Bradley fighting vehicles to damage, abandonment, or destruction.

Unable to bear such losses, the Ukrainians scaled back their attacks and settled for modest local gains.

By the end of the offensive in late fall, the Ukrainian military had lost thousands of soldiers and billions of dollars worth of equipment for the approximate liberation. 200 square miles.

Ukraine’s mistakes worsened the effectiveness of Russian defensive tactics. Rather than concentrating its forces on a single attack to the south, Kiev Divided Situated between the southern march toward Mariupol and the eastern march toward Bakmut, the chances of success in both areas diminish.

The Ukrainian military also deployed its latest recruits to lead the attack. Some of these units were trained and equipped with NATO-supplied weapons such as Abrams and Leopard tanks; combat experience They did not fare well against the battle-hardened Russian troops.

The 2023 offensive not only achieved little but also depleted munitions, particularly artillery shells and anti-aircraft missiles.

After suffering a terrible blow at the hands of the Russian military, Ukrainians suffered at the hands of far-right American politicians.

Led by the Congressional Freedom Caucus, the Republican majority in the House of Representatives blocked aid to Ukraine for six months.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) blamed It’s a delay after Tucker Carlson demonized Ukraine and Donald Trump “seemed like he didn’t want us to do anything at all.”

That only changed when President Biden directed his staff to provide detailed information to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana). intelligence briefing About the dire situation in Ukraine. That information and promise House Democrats trying to help keep Mr. Johnson in office pushed him over the fence.

He passed the aid bill with more Democratic votes than Republicans.

But Republicans have made it clear that this tactic will never work again.

“If you think Ukraine is getting another $60 billion in additional funding from the U.S. Congress, that’s not possible,” declared Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio).

The current aid package should keep Ukraine’s military well supplied through the remainder of this year, but further funding may depend on the outcome of the conflict. 2024 Election. This uncertainty provides an additional incentive for Ukraine to utilize its resources.

of pentagon of the weapons included in the aid package, including much-needed artillery shells and anti-aircraft missiles, Javelin anti-tank missiles, small arms and ammunition, and ammunition for the Bradley Fighting Vehicle and High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). Revealed an impressive list.

Most of these weapons are ideal for the type of defensive war that Ukraine needs to fight.

The US is also supplying Kiev with long-range army tactical missile systems (ATACMS) can attack targets 190 miles away. The weapon would allow Ukrainian forces to attack airfields and logistics hubs behind Russian lines.

Conspicuously missing from the list is the abrams tank.of 31 M1A1 combat tank The US delivered the aircraft to Ukraine in January 2023, but five were destroyed and the rest were salvaged because they were found to be vulnerable to Russian drones, while the Ukrainians, due to lack of suitable weapons, I couldn’t shoot it down. The Ukrainian military also failed to adopt a “combined arms approach” (combining infantry, artillery, armored and aviation forces) that could have used tanks more effectively.

However, the situation on the battlefield is Mobile warfare The U.S. military is training the Ukrainian military and wants to teach it to the Ukrainian military.

Ukraine’s challenges are not just a lack of weapons and tactics. Now that the conflict has become a war of attrition, Russia’s much larger population has tipped the balance in its favor.Ukraine’s military is struggling to replenish its troops. exhausted class.

new conscription law Although the government has improved registration of eligible men and lowered the draft age to 25, draft evasion remains a serious problem in a country with a history of corruption.

All these factors indicate that Ukraine should focus on preserving the territory it controls, rather than trying to liberate what it has lost.

Time is needed to rebuild badly damaged buildings energy infrastructure and continue to train and equip the military.

Ukraine may be able to reverse some of Russia’s gains over the past few months, but it cannot afford another all-out attack. A continuation of losses on the scale of last year could be fatal, especially without the guarantee of further U.S. funding to make up for it.

The United States and its NATO allies have two important tasks ahead of them in the coming months and years. First, analysts and politicians should stop trying to convince us that Ukraine can defeat Russia and take back all of its territory. Second, Western countries must continue to provide military aid to Ukraine.

Without that support, all the money spent and lives lost would be in vain.

Tom Mokaitis is a professor of history at DePaul University and the author of the following books: “Conventional and unconventional warfare: A history of conflict in the modern world.”