With or without Biden, Democrats are stuck with Kamala Harris

One thing is certain in the turbulent 2024 election campaign. Harris will remain in office even if President Biden steps down.

It is impossible for Democrats to replace Biden with anyone other than Harris. Their base is so narrow and their sense of identity and intergroup politics is so high that they cannot afford to ignore the latter and destroy the former.

Added to this is the fact that the time is too short and the process too cumbersome to change candidates now. That means Biden will stay and Harris will be his insurance.

There is widespread confusion over a rematch that only Biden and Donald Trump seem to want. Although their nominations are now certain, both men are still plagued by meaningless opposition.

last Tuesday wisconsin primary, Trump received 79% of the vote. 88.6% of Biden respondents said they had no guidance (8.3%) and were unsure (3% for Dean Phillips).

According to Real Clear Politics’ April 8 national polling average. bidirectional In terms of race, Trump leads with 46.2%.in Five directions In the election campaign, Mr. Biden barely topped 40 percent (40.1 percent).

Such low polling numbers for incumbents are especially troubling, as incumbents typically lead and win in the United States.He is one of only four incumbent elected officials in the past century. lost reelection: Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, Trump.

Naturally, there are also calls for the Democratic Party to replace Mr. Biden. The problem is that you can’t do that because the alternative is worse.

Lyndon Johnson in 1968 was the only incumbent in the last century to not run for re-election. His successor was Vice President Hubert Humphrey.

In uncharted waters like today, precedent matters, and demographics matter even more. Humphrey was a white man. Are today’s Democrats unwilling to treat Humphrey, a minority woman?

In 2020, 87% of Black Americans voted for Biden, compared to 57% of women. In California, Biden won 63.5% of the state (5 million votes out of a 7 million popular vote difference).

There is no reason to believe that Harris will resign. In the end, she ran for president in 2020 and accepted the vice presidential position. Both are strong evidence that you are seriously interested in the top job.

Even if she is despised, there is even less reason to believe her constituency will quiet down. Who among the list of strong candidates will appease them? No one checks more boxes on the identity group’s political bingo card than Ms. Harris. And no one will claim the same executive experience at such a high level unless Democrats are willing to publicly admit what they know privately. Harris was unfit to be vice president.

The not-so-secret secret is that Harris is the administration’s biggest disappointment. Her 2020 run was a huge failure, and she didn’t even make it to the starting line.Harris lasted only 11 months. fell off Despite her seemingly attractive Democratic profile and access to California voters and money, she failed to run in the primary or win a single delegate in 2019. The highlight of her campaign was the low point of her campaign when she criticized Biden. Obsessing over racist policies and numbers.

Both Joe Biden and Jill Biden took the worst of Harris’ attacks, but she won the No. 2 Democratic ticket. It only goes downhill for Harris from there.

Even if there are favorable reports from the regime, story exposed her Limitations. She became less noticeable from her helpless existence.Even compared to the sequestered president, she Inconspicuous has become noticeable.

the result, 37.2%, Harris’ favorability rating is lower than Trump and Biden.Matches the Democratic Party’s share 2020 votingessentially only party members view Harris favorably.

The bottom line is that Democrats are sticking with Harris. If I could have taken anyone off the ticket, she would have been the obvious first choice. Democrats didn’t do that. And despite her devastating and very personal attacks on the candidate, they didn’t ignore her because they put her on the ticket for a reason.

That reason is still prevalent among Democrats.

Democrats cannot unseat Harris. Because that’s bad. And Democrats can’t replace Biden with Harris because that would make things worse.

In other words, Democrats are stuck with Harris, and therefore with Biden.

JT Young served on the professional staff of the House and Senate from 1987 to 2000, with the Treasury Department and Office of Management and Budget from 2001 to 2004, and as director of government communications for a Fortune 20 company from 2004 to 2023. I did.