The NBA took yesterday off, apparently because the league doubts fans can manage watching a game and voting on the same day. I still find that decision pretty comical. No other major sport seems to worry about it, and I don’t think the NBA needs to either. If we’re going to criticize the WNBA for scheduling a Finals game at 12:30 p.m. on a Thursday—and, well, we should—we can poke fun at the NBA for this, too. At least most teams are back on the court tonight.
Toronto arrives with a 4-3 record, including a 2-2 mark on the road. Expectations were fairly high after the Raptors traded for Kawhi Leonard, but he’s once again dealing with an injury and will miss this game. It’s a harsh thing to say about a player regarded as one of the top 75 in NBA history, but availability has been a recurring issue. Toronto is 2-0 with Leonard and won those games by a combined 53 points.
The Raptors still have talent without him, though their ceiling is clearly lower. Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett and Scottie Barnes make for a capable core, but there isn’t much depth behind them, especially after the Leonard deal. Jakob Poeltl is listed as day-to-day and hasn’t played since Oct. 30. He isn’t a heavy-minutes player, but if he’s unavailable, trying to contain Nikola Jokic gets even harder.
Denver’s championship window may not be wide open, but with Jokic on the roster, it’s not shut, either. A healthy Jamal Murray gives the Nuggets another real scoring threat and can make Jokic even more effective. When Murray gets hot, he can look nearly impossible to stop. I don’t have a statistic to prove that; it’s just how it seems when he’s in rhythm.
After winning the title in 2023, Denver lost much of its depth and hasn’t returned to the Finals. The roster looks better equipped now, and maybe stronger than it has in a few years. Christian Braun isn’t someone I’d rank among the league’s top 15 shooting guards, while Cameron Johnson is a steady small forward and Aaron Gordon remains useful in just about every area. The bench also has a solid trio in DeMar DeRozan, Tyus Jones and Marvin Bagley III, who should help keep things moving when Jokic sits.
The Nuggets remain one of the league’s better teams. They’re coming off a loss and are 3-3, but haven’t dropped two straight this season. Toronto could have real defensive problems here. Quickley and Barrett are unlikely to contain Murray, while Barnes may have to take on Jokic if Poeltl can’t play. Either matchup favors Denver. The spread is Denver -4.5, and that’s the side I’d take.
