WNBA Teams Facing Uncertainty

It’s a tense period for all the teams in the WNBA.

While being selected is a huge honor for the players, first-time media voters have had a tough time deciding which ten WNBA players to recognize for their contributions—whether offensive, defensive, or to team success.

Before delving into the rationale behind the selections, let’s look at the final WNBA votes submitted, listed randomly.

First Team:

• Kelsey Mitchell, Indiana Fever
• Alisha Gray, Atlanta Dream
• Napheesa Collier, Minnesota Lynx
• A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces
• Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix Mercury

Second Team:

• Paige Bueckers, Dallas Wings
• Nneka Ogwumike, Seattle Storm
• Jackie Young, Las Vegas Aces
• Aliya Boston, Indiana Fever
• Breanna Stewart, New York Liberty

It’s been a winding road to arrive at these conclusions. You might wonder, “How was a particular player omitted?”

Establishing Basic WNBA Rules

First and foremost, the teams are positioned without regard to specific roles. The composition could include guards or big names without bias. However, I made an effort to maintain a balance across positions.

In evaluating WNBA performance, I value wins over individual accolades, as wins reflect a team’s success more fairly. My belief has long been that WNBA players should represent playoff teams, barring unique cases.

We also utilized some advanced analytics in this process.

Online Ratings (Diff)

This metric assesses how different teams perform with particular players on the court compared to when they are off.

True Shooting % (TS%)

This statistic measures scoring efficiency, incorporating all types of field goals and free throws. It’s regarded as a solid and advanced measure.

Player Impact Estimate (PIE)

This statistic gauges a player’s overall contribution by combining scoring, playmaking, and defense into a single score. Players with higher total PIE values tend to be MVP contenders. Yet, this isn’t a flawless system.

We also considered variables like team records, individual net ratings, player availability, rebounds, playmaking, and defense. Admittedly, it’s not an exact science.

The easy picks include Alyssa Thomas, A’ja Wilson, and Napheesa Collier. These players are solid MVP candidates and stand out as top performers in their teams, showcasing exceptional all-around talent.

Essentially, I felt there were seven clear choices for discussion on my WNBA roster.

For the next group of players, I considered those from the top nine teams.

• Minnesota Lynx: Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride
• Atlanta Dream: Alisha Gray, Breona Jones
• Las Vegas Aces: A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young
• Phoenix Mercury: Alyssa Thomas, Sablery
• New York Liberty: Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart
• Indiana Fever: Kelsey Mitchell, Aliya Boston
• Golden State Valkyries: Veronica Burton
• Seattle Storm: Nneka Ogwumike
• Los Angeles Sparks: Kelsey Plum, D’Asia Humby
• Dallas Wings: Paige Bueckers

The only player from the lower-ranking teams I focused on was Bueckers, who had an impressive season despite her team’s struggles. Angel Reese also crossed my mind, but her missed games and team dynamics were significant obstacles.

If you’re still reading, I had 18 finalists for the All-WNBA selections. A third team would have simplified matters, but it would have still posed challenges.

Looking at performance throughout the season, Alicia Gray stood out, being a dynamic player for the Atlanta Dream, who won 30 games this year.

Now, let’s review all the players I considered for the All-WNBA spots. For those curious, I formatted some data in the following chart:

Note: Team records are based on the games played by the selected players, not the overall records.

For those who want a snapshot of player rankings compared to finalists, there’s another way to examine the data.

Ultimately, I narrowed it down to five guards: Gray, Mitchell, Young, and Bueckers. Insights into these decisions are based on performance metrics.

Alisha Gray ranked fourth among the guards for scoring (18.4 points per game) and had the best true shooting percentage (59.8%). I felt every top four team deserved representation on the first team.

Kelsey Mitchell led all guards in scoring, not missing a game. Her steady scoring was crucial in achieving a solid team record, finishing sixth in the league despite various injuries among teammates. She was the third-highest scorer overall.

Jackie Young had the highest PIE rating among guards, showcasing her significant impact on team performance. The Aces enjoyed a remarkable winning streak, largely due to her contributions.

Paige Bueckers was my only non-playoff player on this roster, yet she was a top scorer across the WNBA, ranking second among guards for PIE. The choice to select Bueckers over others like Plum was warranted since Bueckers demonstrated a greater overall impact, as evidenced by her ratings.

The omission of Veronica Burton and Sabrina Ionescu was challenging. Burton had previously been included but was dropped following the Valkyries’ recent triumphs.

Ionescu and the Liberty had a less-than-stellar season, and despite her potential, her performance declined, with a three-point shooting average way below expectations.

Leaving Plum off the list was tough, but her inability to push her team into playoffs along with lower impact metrics pushed her out of the running.

As for other candidates like Aliya Boston, Breanna Stewart, and Nneka Ogwumike, they too made strong cases. Johnquell Jones, despite a strong history, missed time, impacting her evaluations. And then there’s Angel Reese, another strong potential All-WNBA contender in her second year.

If you want another way to view rankings for these finalists, there are additional resources available.

From my analysis, I selected Boston, Ogwumike, and Stewart, who all boasted top pie ratings, reflecting their consistent performances throughout the season. All these players were a part of my top two team evaluations.

If a second team forward spot had existed, it likely would have gone to Humby. While she was impressive offensively, her defensive contribution was not as convincing, making her a complicated choice.

Aliya Boston made the cut because she played a critical role during a tumultuous season for the Fever, marked by injuries and challenges yet secured a playoff position.

Breanna Stewart remained one of the best defenders in the league, greatly benefiting her team while maintaining a high level of play, proving her significance.

In aiming for diversity, my selections include players from all top teams while only excluding those from the Valkyries. Dallas Wings was the lone non-playoff team with an all-WNBA selection, thanks to Paige Bueckers’ memorable season.

Am I surprised by these votes? Not particularly. The talent pool is immense, the statistics varied, and it all led to the decisions made after much consideration.