Caitlin Clark and top-seeded Iowa State defeated 16th-seeded Holy Cross 91-65 on Saturday to advance to the second round of the women’s NCAA Tournament.
The only thing the Cyclones couldn’t do in this game was cover the spread after leaving the game as 39.5 point favorites. The total score for the game was 157.5 points or less.
Iowa State will face the No. 8 seed Mountaineers in the second round on Monday night, but this time around it’s a more reasonable affair.
The Hawkeyes opened as a 16.5-point favorite, but the market weighed down and Iowa’s projection dropped to -15.5. There has been no significant movement in the total since it started at 163.5.
The Hawkeyes will play their first two games on campus, adding some pressure to entertain home fans.
As a result, Iowa State’s team totals offer the best opportunity to cash in a winning ticket in this contest.
West Virginia vs. Iowa odds
| spread | total | money line |
|---|---|---|
| WVU +15.5 (-105) Iowa State -15.5 (-115) |
163.5 or higher (-115) Less than 163.5 (-105) |
WVU+850 Iowa -1600 |
West Virginia Analysis
The Mountaineers like to play with pace. According to HoopStats, West Virginia ranks him 68th with 73.4 possessions per 40 minutes.
Defensively, they rank fourth in efficiency, allowing 78.6 points per 100 possessions.
West Virginia’s solid defense relies heavily on its ability to protect the perimeter. Opponents are allowing just 4.8 3-pointers per game, which ranks 43rd in the nation.
But it’s not just that opponents struggle to make shots from behind the arc. West Virginia is also limited to 16 3-pointers, which ranks 46th in Division I.
However, Iowa State nearly doubles the number of 3-point attempts made, ranking third in the nation with 29.7 per game.
Clark will definitely get a lot of attention with his 15.9 3-pointers per game, but the Hawkeyes have four players who average at least five attempts from beyond the arc.
So the Mountaineers will need to do more than slow down Clark to have a chance of staying within striking distance in this matchup.
iowa analysis
If you’re playing against Clark and the Hawkeyes, it’s better to take a defensive stance the moment the team bus arrives at the arena.
Iowa State ranks 13th in pace, averaging 77 possessions per 40 minutes. The Hawkeyes are also No. 1 in efficiency, averaging 119.1 points per 100 possessions.
Opposing teams have a hard time simulating the Hawkeyes’ frenetic pace, and given their scoring efficiency, it doesn’t take long for opposing teams to find themselves chasing the game.
In other words, Hawkeye does a great job of speeding up his opponents.
Double-team Clark and her eyesight is so good that she can spot where open players are on the court. It’s worth noting that Iowa State’s assist-to-turnover ratio is her second best at 1.59.
So trying to put pressure on Clark doesn’t always go as planned. Because she will find ways to create scoring opportunities for her teammates.
West Virginia vs. Iowa picks
Of the 22 games West Virginia has played against Power Six schools this season, only two opponents, Iowa State and TCU, have attempted 26 or more 3-pointers, and both teams have attempted more than 26 3-pointers, with both teams shooting from beyond the arc. The success rate did not exceed 32.1%.
The Hawkeyes are shooting 38 percent from the perimeter, ranking ninth in that metric. Iowa State leads all schools with 11.8 3-point field goals per game, but ranks only 24th in 3-point shooting percentage (36.4 percent).
Do you want to bet on March Madness 2024?
Based on these numbers, Iowa State’s offense is even more balanced than it looks on paper.
West Virginia’s opponents rank 268th in average offensive power of 94.3. Iowa is simply in a different class, so I expect the Hawkeyes to exceed the team total of 89.5 points.
Pick: Iowa State teams totaling at least 89.5 points (-121, BetRivers)
