X-factors for every NFC team in the Wild Card round

Now that the regular season is over and the playoffs have begun, it's time to revisit the “Secret Superstar” concept, which reveals the most underrated players each week of the season. Instead of the unheralded players we've seen so far, let's move on and discuss one player from each team in the wild card round who could make a big difference in advancing to a divisional spot.

Here are the potential X-factors for every NFC playoff team.

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, January 12, 2025

Philadelphia Eagles: Safety Reid Blankenship

We tend to think of Vic Fangio as the master and ultimate dispenser of quarter coverage, but that makes a lot of sense from a historical perspective as well. The Eagles' legendary defensive coordinator has half the league copying and pasting his Cover-4 material all the time, but Philadelphia's outstanding defense doesn't lead with what is supposed to be Fangio's go-to structure. In fact, the Eagles have lined up in Cover-4 just 18% of the time this season, and have been in Cover-1 (man coverage with a single-high safety) 22% more often, making them truly Cover-3. (zone coverage with a single-high safety) and does this 35% of the time.

Fangio has no intention of changing his previous plans unless he has the talent to make it meaningful. And one thing is for sure here. The Eagles are outstanding when playing in single-high coverage. Only the Houston Texans (71.7) have a lower opponent passer rating than the Eagles' 73.0 when playing Cover 1 or Cover 3.

Obviously, if you're going to play this much single-high coverage, you need a good deep safety. You could say that the Eagles have two in C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Reed Blankenship. Gardner-Johnson is the better-known name, but he and Blankenship have lined up in the deep third for 602 snaps this season, and in any kind of single-high game, Blankenship has 13 completions on 19 targets. is allowed. 127 yards, no touchdowns, 3 interceptions. That includes the Eagles' 34-29 win over the Packers in Week 1, when Jordan Love intercepted a pass from tight end Luke Musgrave trying to take a mid-range shot.

There's no doubt the Packers are keeping an eye on Blankenship this time around.

Green Bay Packers: WR Romeo Doubes

When the Packers go up against the Eagles' excellent pass defense (Fangio's team is also the NFL's best team in man coverage this season), they will be facing a season-ending loss to receiver Christian Christian, who suffered a season-ending torn right ACL in the regular season. They will likely play without Watson. Final game against the Chicago Bears. it is very smart soccer players I believe Matt LaFleur's offense is now destined to plateau, which…doesn't make much sense.

This season, Watson was targeted a team-high 19 times for passes of 20 air yards or more and had just seven catches for 288 yards and one touchdown. It's great when you hit, but it can be disconcerting when you miss. Jaden Reed has been Jordan Love's most reliable deep target, catching 12 of 15 deep passes for 478 yards and one touchdown. And if you're wondering who was Love's second biggest vertical threat, it's Romeo Dubs. Douce has five deep catches for 144 yards and a touchdown this season, and has multiple instances of cooking cornerbacks through extended routes.

People tend not to think of Doubs as a vertical outside receiver, but he can track it downfield and at 6-foot-2, 204 pounds, he can make contested catches anywhere on the field. He has the size and aggressiveness to do so.

So there may be other things to worry about when it comes to Green Bay's offensive geometry.

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, January 12, 2025

Washington Commanders: CB Mike Sainristil

Baker-Reagan Mayfield can be a great quarterback at his best, but there's no question about his ability this season. Mayfield enters the postseason having completed 407 of 570 attempts for 4,500 yards, 41 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, posting a passer rating of 106.8 (fourth highest in the NFL). You don't necessarily know what you're going to get from Mayfield as a passer, but you know there's going to be a lot of it.

This doesn't necessarily bode well for commanders in Washington. Their cornerback group is more functional than the shutdown. This season, Washington's cornerbacks have allowed 138 completions on 234 attempts for 1,695 yards, 15 touchdowns, three interceptions and a 97.4 opponent passer rating. In Tampa Bay's 37-20 win over the Commanders in Week 1, Washington's cornerbacks allowed 10 completions to Mayfield on 14 attempts for 85 yards and four touchdown passes to Mayfield. He made three of them and had a passer rating of 126.5.

That's why the managers traded for former New Orleans Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore in November, but Lattimore has been injured ever since. Even if Lattimore is on track for the playoffs, the blame could fall on rookie Mike Sainristil. He is a University of Michigan graduate who has gotten better and better as his first NFL campaign progresses. Many expected the 5-foot-10, 182-pound Sain Listil to be primarily a slot defender at the next level, but he has lined up outside 774 times and has played well in the slot. He played just 140 snaps. And in Week 1, he was marked by the Buccaneers, allowing six catches on seven targets for 55 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, no pass breakups, and a passer rating of 139.0. However, the number of times he scored points was not small. for the rest of the season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: EDGE Yaya Diaby

Todd Bowles' Buccaneers defense has been a strange beast this season, and not what you would expect from a defensive-minded head coach. The Bucks enter the postseason ranked 16th overall in defensive DVOA, 6th in rushing, and 23rd in passing. Its pass defense can be too passive in coverage at times, which tends to drive fans crazy, but there's quite a bit going on with Tampa Bay's defensive front. Vita Vea, 6-foot-4 and 347 pounds, is a standout run stopper and pressure force with seven sacks and 50 total pressures this season. Kaliyah Kancey has lived up to his stellar collegiate record over the past two NFL seasons. The 2023 first-round pick has become a multi-gap monster at 6-foot-1 and 281 pounds with eight sacks and 39 total pressures.

Don't ever let it be said that the Bucs don't value size versatility among their pass rushers. From that perspective, the person in the middle this season is Yaya Diaby, whom the Bucks also acquired from Louisville in the 2023 draft (third round). At 6-foot-3 and 263 pounds, Diaby has become a viable edge rusher. He can run around the arc towards the quarterback, burst through any gaps from the outside, and kick inside the tackle to create more havoc. This is especially true on the Tampa Bay overload front.

In Week 1 against the Commanders, Diaby had a total of six pressures, all of them from the left or right edge, but he was just as likely to turn the edge to the outside as he was to the guard or center. tended to attack. The Bucks need to strengthen their pressure concept to overcome the deficiencies in their secondary, and Diaby should be a big part of that thinking.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams
Monday, January 13, 2025

Minnesota Vikings: LT Cam Robinson

Ideally, the Vikings would have star left tackle Christian Darrisaw for a playoff berth, but Darrisaw suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee in Week 7 and is out for the rest of the season. I ended up losing it. In response, the Vikings acquired Robinson, a 2017 second-round pick who spent his entire career in Jacksonville, in a trade with the Jacksonville Jaguars. It's been a checkered career for the veteran, who has alternated years where he looked like he had top tackle potential and years where he looked underwhelming.

Since Week 9 against the Vikings, Robinson has allowed three sacks, three quarterback hits and 30 quarterback hurries. He was especially susceptible to pressure in Week 18 against the Detroit Lions, when the Vikings became the only 14-win wild-card team in NFL history. In that game, Robinson allowed a sack, a quarterback hit, and nine quarterback touchdowns as Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn threw all kinds of evil at the Vikings' offensive line (especially in the red zone). .

Rams terror Jared Verse could be named Defensive Rookie of the Year, but based on his record last week, he could give Robinson all kinds of hell. Ditto for the wildly underrated Byron Young. If that happens and Sam Darnold has a similar pressure-related brain fart in the red zone, the Vikings, who also have 14 wins in NFL history, could be eliminated in the wild-card round.

Los Angeles Rams: CB Ahkello Witherspoon

If the Detroit Lions taught us anything in their Week 18 win over the Vikings, it's that the only real hope for Justin Jefferson is to push him off the line of scrimmage and at least make sure he's on the offensive line. The trick is to disrupt the timing of the route before you do it. Cornerback Amik Robertson did a great job of putting pressure on Jefferson at the line in this game, and Robertson was also very happy attacking him throughout the play to further influence his release. . For the Rams, Witherspoon may be the main mover. Witherspoon is the only cornerback on the roster with more targets in press (30) than in coverage (16). Coby Durant and Darius Williams are smaller, out-of-coverage cornerbacks, and the 6-foot-2, 195-pound Witherspoon is more of an enforcer.

Witherspoon also moves to both sides of the formation, which could result in him frequently standing on top of Jefferson when he lines up on the outside. If the Rams were to employ a pressing strategy in such a case, they should have high hopes for Witherspoon to do it, but it's a complicated situation. In Week 18 against the Seattle Seahawks, Witherspoon took just seven coverage snaps and allowed three completions from Geno Smith to DK Metcalf, two of which were with Witherspoon in press coverage. . If the Rams plan to actively use Mr. Jefferson, it is clear that they will need a better result in this game.