Ripple (XRP) maintains $2.03 as ETF inflows approach $1 billion; trader interest shifts 40% towards $3.00
Institutional demand and technical patterns shape XRP’s outlook for December
Ripple’s XRP (XRP-USD) was priced around $2.03, experiencing a 0.9% dip on December 6. This price point is under scrutiny as ETF inflows rise close to $1 billion. Even with some fluctuations, the data indicates that increased institutional interest, along with tightening technical conditions, could signal a pivotal moment for XRP’s price movement.
Strong ETF inflows bolster institutional accumulation
Since its launch, the XRP ETF has accumulated about $972 million, according to SoSoValue. The leading fund, Canary XRPC ETF, attracted $363 million, followed by Grayscale GXRP with $211 million, XRP per bit at $187 million, and Franklin Templeton XRPZ with $134 million.
The daily influx remains encouraging, noted at $10.2 million added each Friday. Analysts suggest that persistent institutional demand, even amidst a broader cryptocurrency sell-off, reflects an underlying structural imbalance. Liquidity is tightening as ETF issuers gather XRP off-exchange, potentially setting the stage for a significant rally as demand rises.
Analysts caution about hidden supply compression
Market strategists assert that the circulating supply of XRP is significantly lower than the nominal 60 billion. Analyst Zack Rector believes that the actual tradable supply may be closer to 10 billion. Meanwhile, Jake Clubber suggests that private reserves might be nearly empty.
If these claims hold true, the institutional demand for the ETF could quickly ignite a price breakout as available liquidity dwindles. This scenario mirrors the situation ahead of Bitcoin’s ETF accumulation phase. Ripple researcher Bullwinkle described the movement as a “build-up of pressure behind the scenes,” warning that retail investors may be blindsided by these developments.
Technical structure suggests 40% upside potential
XRP’s chart reveals a symmetrical triangle formation, with a support level of $2.12 that has been repeatedly defended since November 2024. A solid weekly close above this threshold could signal market stability.
According to analysis from Brave New Coin, breaking through the triangular upper band could target a price of $2.90-$3.00—representing a potential 40% increase from current levels. This aligns with a broader falling wedge reversal pattern seen in higher timeframes, suggesting that XRP’s correction period may be nearing its end.
Technical strategist Sergio Ricci identifies a long-term setup with a target of $2.02, aiming for $2.37 in the short term (+17%). If momentum continues, a more substantial breakout could be on the horizon.
Macroeconomic tailwinds support price adjustments in the cryptocurrency market
Additional support comes from the overall cryptocurrency market situation. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is hovering around $89,800, while Ethereum (ETH-USD) trades at $3,060. An improving risk appetite precedes the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut during the FOMC meeting on December 9-10.
Historically, lower interest rates have buoyed speculative assets by reducing financing costs and enhancing liquidity. Analysts argue that the combination of strong ETF inflows into XRP, decreased open interest, and easing policy expectations could provide a favorable backdrop for another market rally before the year ends.
Regulatory and liquidity factors pose critical risks
Despite the positive indicators, risks persist. Recently, a $7.6 million liquidation across XRP futures positions showcases underlying vulnerabilities. Additionally, the general decline in altcoins and reduced futures open interest reflect a cautious market sentiment.
Regulatory developments also remain a concern. Although the legal clarity for Ripple in the U.S. has improved, the SEC ruling confirming XRP’s non-security status, along with ongoing discussions around crypto ETFs and cross-border liquidity rules, could introduce short-term volatility.
Historical patterns indicate market shifts
A new bullish RSI divergence has emerged, reminiscent of past bullish cycles for XRP. Historically, these patterns saw rebounds between 37% and 174% during previous XRP market cycles (2018, 2021). The RSI recovery, alongside rising lows in price, hints at a possible transition from the accumulation phase to a breakout phase.
If XRP manages to stay above the $2.25-$2.30 range, continued bullish momentum towards $3.00 is anticipated. However, maintaining prices below $1.85 could negate this setup and expose a risk of retracement to around $1.70.
Conclusion — Buy rating: Strong fundamentals align with technical recovery
The fundamentals and pricing structure for XRP present a bullish outlook. With strong ETF inflows, solid support at $2.12, and historical divergence patterns, the indicators suggest an impending price breakout.
Purchase zone: $1.95–$2.10
Scope: $2.90–$3.00
Stop loss: Below $1.85
Bias: Bullish — 35-40% upside expected through Q1 2026 due to institutional accumulation and technical compression.
