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Yankees vs. Guardians Game 5 predictions: ALCS picks, odds, bets

The Cleveland Guardians fell short of their goal of winning the ALCS by two games each.

After rallying from a 6-2 deficit to tie the game in Game 4, Cleveland shortstop Breian Rocchio failed to throw cleanly on Alex Verdugo's grounder in the top of the ninth inning, leading to a run by John Berti.

Gleyber Torres then singled to drive in Anthony Volpe and give the Yankees an 8-6 lead.

Tommy Kahnle took the mound in the bottom of the 9th inning and ended the game with two runners on and one out.

The Yankees, who are one win away from advancing to the World Series, will use Carlos Rodon as the starting mound for Game 5, while the Guardians will counter with Tanner Bibby.

But Cleveland's decision to start Bybee is not without risk, as he will be pitching on short rest for the first time in his major league career.

Yankees outlook

Rodon showed his true potential in the series opener, holding the Guardians to three hits and one run over six innings.

After giving up four runs in 3 2/3 innings against the Royals in the divisional round, he bounced back nicely.

The Yankees will no doubt be looking for more from the 10-year veteran, who won his first postseason game.

Nevertheless, this matchup dates back to Rodon's days as a member of the White Sox playing in the Central Division of the American League, and is a game in which he was particularly active.

The southpaw has appeared in 21 games and boasts a 2.81 ERA, but is only hitting .214 with a weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) of .275 for the Guardians.

And just looking at the current Guardians roster, they have a .193 batting average and a .256 wOBA in 92 at-bats against Rodon.

He did a great job of using his fastball to get ahead of Cleveland's batters and then using his slider as a throwaway pitch.

Rodon's slider will continue to be a key weapon for him against the Guardians, and according to Fangraphs, it's the pitch they performed worst with (minus -19.8 points) all season.

guardians analysis

The Yankees gave Bibby a rude welcome in Game 2, allowing him five hits and three runs in 1 1/3 innings.

Bybee pitched well in the division series against the Tigers, but facing this Yankees lineup is a big step up in class.

The Guardians are 0-2 in Bybee's two career starts against the Pinstripers.

This current Yankees roster is hitting .407 with a .467 wOBA and a launch angle of 18.7 degrees against Bibby in 30 at-bats.


Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibby pitches in the bottom of the first inning of Game 2 of baseball's American League Championship Series on Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024, in New York. AP

Like Rodon, Bibby relies heavily on his slider, which he uses at 27.8%, the second-highest rate in his arsenal. The slider also had Bibby's highest strikeout rate of 34.4%.

He saved an average of 13.8 runs on his feature pitch, but the problem is that the Yankees give up the fourth-most runs in the league against sliders (+9.0 runs average).

Bibby threw only 39 pitches in Game 2 and didn't throw deep after the second inning, but he had moments of great impact right from the start.

With Torres, Juan Soto and Aaron Judge at the top of the Yankees' order, Bybee could face another tough battle.


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Yankees vs. Guardians picks

No one will deny that Bibbies had a great year and was the Guardian's pitcher of the year by a wide margin.

In his first two seasons in Cleveland, he went 22-12 with a 3.25 ERA.

The reality is that the Guardians have few options at this point, which is why they brought Bibby back for a short break.

Unfortunately, he's facing a Yankees batting lineup with far too much quality.

Additionally, Rodon had a marginal performance against Cleveland, and the team is 5-0 when he starts against the Guardians.

It's rare to get the Yankees as a short-term favorite above -120, so this opportunity is too good to pass up at their current price.

Best bet: Yankees ML (-118, FanDuel)


Why trust New York Post Betting?

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He has won two 15-leg teasers during his betting career, as well as 12-leg parlays, including eight games in the Little League World Series. Most recently, they accurately selected the finalists for the 2024 European Championship and Copa America.

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