Analysts report that Bitcoin dropped by 5% over the weekend, indicating it needs to exceed the support level above $110,000 to have a chance to retest its all-time high.
The cryptocurrency declined from approximately $118,330 on Friday to $112,300 by Sunday.
“After the downturn on Friday, a lot hinges on how risk sentiment plays out,” said US IG market analyst Tony Sycamore to Cointelegraph on Monday while Bitcoin rebounded to $114,800.
He noted that he has assessed a pullback from the weekend’s peak and that it has maintained support from a previous record high of $112,000.
“If risk sentiment stabilizes and Bitcoin stays above the $112,000/$110,000 support, it can attempt to retest its record highs. However, just above this, there’s significant monthly resistance at $125,000.”
He also mentioned that if risk appetite declines further in August and Bitcoin breaks its support, it might drop to the 200-day moving average of $99,355.
Sycamore’s prediction aligns with that of Arthur Hayes, who cautioned on Sunday that macroeconomic pressures could push Bitcoin back down to around $100,000.
August Bitcoin Bear Month
Historically, since 2013, Bitcoin (BTC) has seen notable monthly dips in August, as per data from GlassNode.
In 2024, the asset fell by 8.6%, landing just above $59,000—a small decline compared to the more significant drops in 2023 and 2022, where it fell to $27,300 and $19,800, respectively.
The average loss in August has been around 11.4%. If patterns hold, BTC could slide to about $105,000 this month.
That said, there have been exceptions to this trend during years of bull markets.
September is just as Bad
The last gain in August occurred during the bull market of 2021, when BTC increased by 13.8%, surpassing $47,000 that month. Given that 2025 is projected to be another bull market year, there might still be optimism.
The outlook for September appears grim, as eight out of the past twelve months have ended with losses.
