The poll shocked the campaign and disrupted recent views that President Biden is closing the gap with former President Trump in a 2024 rematch.
A poll circulated on Sunday showed Mr. Trump beating his Democratic successor by 6 points in a head-to-head race and 9 points in polls for five candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an independent Democratic candidate. It was shown that Green Party candidate Jill Stein and progressive professor Cornel West.
The CNN poll, conducted by SSRS, was immediately used as evidence by pundits and ammunition by President Trump and his team that the president was enjoying a highly rated and aggressive State of the Union address early on. It was used as evidence that the supposed polling gains were fading. March – when he fired multiple volleys at his Republican predecessor in prime time, targeting his jugular.
An average of national horse racing polls since October of last year has shown Trump with a higher approval rating than Biden, but the president’s approval rating has gradually increased in the weeks following the State of the Union address.
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President Biden speaks during the State of the Union address at the U.S. Capitol on March 7, 2024. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“Biden’s standing against Trump is improving in the polls,” polling analyst Nate Silver said last month.
But Daron Shaw, a political science professor and professor at the University of Texas who is a member of the Fox News decision-making team and a Republican partner in the Fox News poll, is skeptical.
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“If you really want to parse out a one- to two-point shift one way or the other, I think if you squint really hard you can convince yourself that he’s doing the following. [Biden] We gained one or two, and now we’ve lost one of them,” Shaw said.
“The campaign has been pretty stable for most of the last nine months,” said Shaw, who served as chief strategist for former President George W. Bush’s 2000 and 2004 campaigns.
President Biden and former President Trump (AP Photo/Alex Brandon | Curtis Means/DailyMail.com, via AP, Pool)
Veteran pollster Chris Anderson, another member of the Fox News Election Decision Team and a Democratic partner on Fox News Polls, said any changes are small.
“There seemed to be at least some stabilization after the State of the Union,” softening the earlier view that Trump had an advantage.
Referring to recent Fox News polls in key battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, Anderson said, “There have been some signs of progress for Biden, but they’re still really small.” did.
While national polls get a lot of attention, the race for the White House is a battle over each state and its electors, so the focus is on polls in battleground states.
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Analysts are debating how much the State of the Union address helped boost Biden’s modest rise in the polls.
“It’s just a natural return home for Democrats, and they probably will, as opposed to the State of the Union,” Shaw argued. “The main point of the State of the Union address was that it in some ways stopped the conversation that was corrupting Biden, that he was too old and too weak for the job, and it still is. It remains, but at least not on a daily basis.” I think that was the success of the State of the Union address. ”
A few days after the CNN poll, an NPR/PBS NewsHour Marist College poll showed Biden leading Trump in a head-to-head race by two points and tied with his Republican challenger at five points. Ta. – Candidate field.
A Quinnipiac University national poll conducted at the same time as the CNN poll showed Biden and Trump tied in a head-to-head and five-candidate contest, while an NBC News poll conducted a few days earlier showed The poll showed Biden leading Trump in second place. The race was a two-person race, and when third-party and independent candidates were added in, Biden had a two-point advantage.
Former President Trump boards a plane after speaking at a campaign rally in Freeland, Michigan, Wednesday, May 1, 2024. (AP Photo/Paul Sancia)
With six months to go until Election Day, Shaw wondered if the current trend in the polls could change dramatically unless there was significant progress.
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“We’re in a hyperpolarized era where we already have two candidates running,” Shaw said, noting that many voters already “know everything about them.”
“So why would we expect a big move? What will educate voters in this campaign? Usually that’s what’s happened in the past and why the numbers fluctuate,” he said. Ta.
Anderson agreed: “This is what this election is going to be about. With so many people locked up, the movement we see going forward is likely to be on the fringes.” and put the spotlight on it.
Six months in, Anderson said, “Things don’t look good for Biden, but at the same time you can see how his base has recovered, he’s rallied the coalition, and all of a sudden he’s several points higher than he is now.” . ”
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