According to a recent Fox News national poll, about 30% of voters think the assassination attempt on President Donald Trump during the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner was staged. Specifically, 30% view the shooting as a hoax, while 13% firmly believe it was orchestrated. In contrast, 52% of respondents think the incident was genuine, with 31% asserting that it definitely occurred.
Interestingly, 18% of participants are uncertain about its authenticity.
Cole Thomas Allen, accused in the April 25 attack, has pleaded not guilty to four felony charges issued by the Department of Justice. This attack was the third on Trump’s life, following two earlier attempts in 2024.
The public’s perspective on this incident signals a potential crisis in shared reality. A significant partisan split exists regarding the event’s credibility; nearly half of Democrats (49%) and supporters of 2024 Democratic candidate Kamala Harris (48%) suspect the shooting was staged, contrasting sharply with only 10% of Republicans who think the same.
On the flip side, 79% of Republicans believe the shooting was real, along with 77% of those who backed Trump in 2024. Among MAGA supporters, this belief rises to 87%, while just 31% of Democrats agree the attack occurred.
Independents are somewhat divided, with 41% affirming the incident’s reality and 34% suggesting it was staged.
The uncertainty about the event’s authenticity is most pronounced among independents, where 25% are unsure, followed by 21% of Democrats and 11% of Republicans.
Notably, younger Republicans—those under 45—are more than five times likelier than their older counterparts to believe the shooting was fabricated (22% versus 4%).
Republican pollster Daron Shaw indicated that the assassination attempt was indeed real and emphasized that widespread denial of facts jeopardizes the political landscape. He noted the detrimental effects of polarization and cynicism in politics, particularly as younger voters exhibit heightened skepticism towards institutions.
Another expert added that this trend reflects a deeper issue where skepticism about significant events leads to a default response of disbelief.
Younger voters, particularly those under 35, are nearly twice as likely as those over 65 to claim the shooting was faked (38% versus 20%). Conversely, older individuals tend to assert its reality, with 65% affirming the event’s authenticity.
There’s also a noticeable gender difference, as more women (35%) than men (25%) lean towards thinking the event was staged. Additionally, over 60% of white evangelical Christians believe there was a mass shooting, whereas 20% disagree.
This Fox News investigation, conducted between May 15-18, 2026, involved a sample of 1,002 registered voters and included interviews through various methods. The overall margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
