US Employer Added 303,000 The Ministry of Labor announced on Friday that it would cut workers’ March salary payments.
Unemployment rate Check down to 3.8 That’s up from 3.9 percent the previous month.
Economists had expected employment to rise by 200,000 and the unemployment rate to be flat at 3.9% last month.
The government reported last month that the economy grew by 275,000 people in February, about 75,000 more than expected, and by 229,000 people in January.
The forecast for January was revised upwards to 256,000, an increase of 27,000, and the forecast for February was revised downward to 270,000, a decrease of 5,000. After these revisions, employment increased by 22,000 people from the previous report.
After the revision and March numbers, the three-month rolling average rose from 265,000 to 276,000.
Private sector employment rose by 232,000, up from 207,000 in February and 196,000 in January. Construction employment increased by 39,000 people, while manufacturing employment was flat. Private sector employers in health care and social assistance added 81,300 jobs. Leisure and entertainment added him 49,000. Government employment increased by 71,000 people.
Despite rising wages and a tight labor market, the labor force participation rate remains at 62.7 percent and the employment-population ratio stands at 60.3 percent, with no significant changes seen over the past year. As of March, both measures remained unchanged.
Hourly wages for all non-farm civilian payroll employees increased 12 cents, or 0.3%, to $34.69. Over the past 12 months, average hourly wages have increased by 4.1%, but many economists believe this pace is too fast to match the 2% inflation rate.The average hourly wage of private sector production and
Non-management employees rose 7 cents, or 0.2%, to $29.79.
Earlier this year, the consensus among economists and investors was that the Fed would cut interest rates as many as six times starting in March. After the Fed surprised many investors in January by indicating it was not ready to cut rates at its March meeting, many investors believed it would begin cutting rates at its next meeting in May.
In recent months there has been debate about the possibility that official employment statistics, the result of so-called “establishment surveys” that ask employers about pay changes, may be overstating employment. Household surveys that ask about individuals’ employment status report much smaller increases in employment, or even decreases, than business surveys.
But this month, that pattern broke. According to the household budget survey, the number of employees increased by 469,000 people, which exceeded the establishment survey. Breitbart Business Digest expects the household survey numbers to rise overtime, reflecting the establishment survey and ultimately confirming the strong labor market in reports from employers.
The date for the first rate cut has been pushed back to June, and the expected number of rate cuts has been reduced to three, with data suggesting the economy continues to grow and add jobs. A Wall Street Journal survey of economists at major banks found that nearly all expected a rate cut in June. The only exceptions are economists at Nomura, who expect a rate cut in July, and economists at Mizuho, who predict no rate cut this year.
The consensus among sell-side banks and Fed forecasters is now to expect the first rate cut in June, with former outliers recently dismissing recession predictions.
The uniformity here overstates the confidence in a June rate cut. These things will move significantly in 2024. https://t.co/yJ1fFhLLnG pic.twitter.com/ijNF8zFPeG
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) April 2, 2024
The Fed typically lowers interest rates when it thinks the economy is deteriorating. Growth last year was very strong, especially in the second half, but economists believed the Fed’s rate hikes from March 2022 to July 2023 would be a big drag on growth and the labor market this year.
Some Democratic politicians, progressive economists and Wall Street analysts say the Fed is risking an unnecessary recession by refraining from cutting rates. Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, have argued that the strength of the labor market and the broader economy warrants patience.
Recently, some analysts have concluded that the Fed may not cut rates at all this year. Bianco Research’s James Bianco doesn’t expect any layoffs this year. Breitbart Business Digest, a free daily newsletter from Breitbart News, doesn’t expect the Fed to cut rates this year and says the risk of a rate cut is low. hiking It’s much higher than Wall Street thinks.
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said Thursday he expects the Fed to cut rates twice this year, but warned that the Fed may not cut rates at all.
In total, the economy added more than 2.4 million jobs in 2023, the lowest number since the pandemic ended and Joe Biden took office. However, compared to pre-pandemic levels, this is a high level of job growth, much of it driven by sectors still rebuilding from lockdowns and mass layoffs caused by the pandemic. The last time the economy added this many jobs in a year was 1999.
