Cinderella Candidates for the NCAA Tournament
In today’s college basketball landscape, the influence of NIL deals and the transfer portal makes it tougher to spot potential Cinderella stories for the NCAA Tournament.
Top programs regularly scoop up skilled players from other teams, resulting in a dominance of super teams while many mid-major teams scramble to fill the gaps left by departing starters.
It’s widely known now that for the 17th year in a row, a double-digit seed has made it to the second weekend of the tournament. Last season, that honor went to No. 10 seed Arkansas. While their unexpected success garnered attention, it didn’t quite align with the typical underdog narrative, especially considering John Calipari’s roster filled with former McDonald’s All-Americans is starting to hit its stride.
Looking ahead to 2026, one wonders where the next Cinderella will emerge from. The 2025 tournament didn’t yield a spectacular upset, even with seven first-round upsets. Yet, with a history of double-digit seeds progressing to the Sweet 16 in 38 out of the last 40 tournaments, there’s always room for surprises.
Here are four teams that might just fit the Cinderella mold for 2026, particularly those seeded lower than 11.
While Miami (Ohio) grabbed headlines for an undefeated regular season, many metrics showed Akron as the strongest team in the MAC this year. The Zips, entering their third consecutive MAC Conference Tournament, are seasoned players returning to March Madness for head coach John Groce, marking his fourth appearance in five years.
As the No. 12 seed in the Midwest, they’re set to face No. 5 seed Texas Tech. The Zips have the fifth-longest winning streak in the country at ten games and exhibit excellent shooting skills, ranking eighth in effective field goal percentage and 14th in three-point percentage at 38 percent. Recognizable names like guard Tabari Johnson, forward Amani Lyles, and guard Shamar Scott — all in at least their third season — make them a formidable opponent.
If Akron can sink some outside shots, they could challenge Texas Tech. The Red Raiders lost star player JT Toppin to an ACL injury in February, and guard Christian Anderson’s leg injury adds another element of uncertainty. Regardless, Akron’s senior-heavy squad poses a significant threat.
South Florida, coming from the American Conference, doesn’t exactly fit the Cinderella archetype. This marks their first tournament appearance in 14 years and only the fourth in program history.
After facing a tragic loss with head coach Amir Abdul-Rahim’s passing right before last season, the team finished 13-19 under interim coach Ben Fletcher. Fast forward a year, and first-year head coach Brian Hodgson has led them to a 25-8 record, winning the American regular season and the first conference tournament title in 36 years. It’s a comeback story that naturally garners support, especially given the Bulls’ talent.
Seeded No. 11 in the East, they face No. 6 seed Louisville, which enters the tournament on an 11-game winning streak. Utilizing strong offensive efficiency metrics (61st in offense) and solid defense (40th), USF features five players averaging between 11.1 to 16.8 points a game, led by guard Wes Ennis and double-double prospect Isaiah Nelson. This balance makes them capable of competing against any foe.
With over 20 years at Northern Iowa, head coach Ben Jacobsen has a knack for pulling off upsets. The Panthers, as a No. 12 seed, could face off against St. John’s, the No. 5 seed in the East.
The Panthers previously made waves by reaching the Sweet 16 as a No. 9 seed in 2010, taking down top-seeded Kansas along the way. They also achieved first-round victories in 2015 and 2016, including an upset over Texas.
This season, Northern Iowa has been gaining momentum, winning four games in four days at Arch Madness. Their ability to shoot over 42% from three-point range in recent conference tournament wins is impressive, especially since the team’s strength lies in its defense, currently ranking 24th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency.
Against Big East champion St. John’s, if Northern Iowa controls the pace and capitalizes on early gaps, they could pose a challenge late in the game, especially with senior guard Trey Campbell’s recent performances.
Finally, VCU, made famous through their memorable 2011 run from the First Four to the Final Four, almost missed making it to the 2026 tournament but secured their spot by winning the Atlantic 10 Tournament.
Head coach Phil Martelli Jr., in his first year, is the fifth head coach to guide VCU to the NCAA Tournament since 2015. Like South Florida, the Rams lack notable weaknesses in their metrics, ranking 46th in offense and 60th in defense. They’ve been making a name for themselves, winning 16 of their last 17 games, with their only loss to another tournament team, St. Louis.
VCU is positioned as a slight underdog against No. 6 seed North Carolina, already impacted by a season-ending injury to standout freshman Caleb Wilson. If they can effectively use their aggressive guards and capitalize on their 36 percent shooting from three-point range, they might surprise everyone come tournament time. Leading scorer Terrence Hill Jr. and 6-foot-11 big Lazar Djokovic could play key roles in determining VCU’s potential this March.
