Congress is moving quickly as the Senate has passed several stopgap spending measures. Among these is a straightforward bill from the GOP aimed at keeping the government funded for another seven weeks, while negotiations for a longer-term solution get tangled up.
As the deadline looms, lawmakers are pondering whether they’ll manage to leave town without triggering a shutdown when they reconvene next week.
With time running out, here are a few key points to watch in the days ahead.
How committed will Democrats be?
Democrats have been clear that they have no intention of backing the GOP’s straightforward stopgap funding bill without some significant changes.
The real question is how steadfast they will be in this stance.
Democratic leaders are insisting on including discussions to prolong the Affordable Care Act subsidies, which are set to expire at the end of December.
In March, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer surprised many by backing a Republican-led spending bill.
This time, however, he seems less likely to cave, especially given the criticism he faced from within his party.
Schumer pointed out that the context has changed dramatically since March, referencing the declining approval ratings of the GOP’s tax and spending plans, as well as a stronger Democratic unity.
Nonetheless, Democrats are putting themselves at risk by opposing the GOP funding measures, which already have the support of a majority in both chambers. They might find themselves shouldering much of the blame if a shutdown occurs.
“We’re united now, which is important,” said Senator Peter Welch (D-Vt.). “There’s genuine concern about various closures. Democrats have a history of wanting to keep the government running, but we’re dealing with a president who doesn’t shy away from threatening shutdowns.”
Republican messaging consistency
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) have been delivering a clear message as the shutdown deadline approaches: the choice is between passing a “clean” continuing resolution (CR) or a government shutdown.
The two have been consistent as Senate Democrats voted for the seven-week CR, setting the stage for a clash.
When asked about the options available to Democrats before the vote, Thune asserted that the situation was straightforward.
“The choice is clear,” he stated. “It’s about funding the government through a clean, temporary solution or facing a shutdown.”
After a failed vote on Friday, Thune seemed prepared to schedule another attempt before the Chamber of Commerce meeting on September 29th.
He is also advocating for a bill aimed at preventing future shutdowns, which raises eyebrows among lawmakers.
If a shutdown does occur, Republicans could shift the narrative to focus on the negative impacts, such as introducing measures to pay military personnel during the shutdown.
History on shutdowns
Republicans have had a rough history with government shutdowns. Almost seven years ago, a standoff during the Trump administration led to the longest shutdown in U.S. history—lasting 35 days—over the controversial issue of funding for a border wall.
Ultimately, Trump had to reopen the government due to widespread flight disruptions caused by the shortage of air traffic controllers.
A similar situation occurred in 2013 when Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and other conservatives pushed to defund the Affordable Care Act, resulting in a shutdown lasting over two weeks. This left many in the GOP facing backlash that lingered for some time.
This time around, Republicans are optimistic they can change that narrative.
Thune remarked that the perception of the party can shift. “Historically, the losing party has been one attempting to take action,” he said, framing the Democrats’ proposals as overly partisan.
Potential for ACA credits
Democrats contend that any government funding package should include an extension of the enhanced health premium subsidies under the Affordable Care Act. The expiration of these subsidies could lead to skyrocketing premiums.
Thune and Johnson, however, maintain that any amendments should be off the table, advocating for keeping the CR as straightforward as possible.
But some lawmakers are discussing whether there’s a middle ground to consider.
Senator Tom Tillis (R-N.C.), who is retiring next year, believes some sort of resolution will be necessary by December 31st.
There are suggestions for bipartisan measures that could be paired with a comprehensive funding bill later this year, possibly inked by late November, coinciding with the expiration of the GOP CR.
“I think that’s feasible,” Tillis noted.
Thune didn’t dismiss the notion, stating that it would be “addressed” in negotiations.
“ACA subsidies are going to be part of the discussion, but right now, we need to focus on keeping the government open and working on budget proposals first,” he elaborated.
He also indicated he would welcome discussions with Schumer, suggesting Democratic leaders need a compelling reason for that to happen.
The unpredictable Trump factor
How Trump will behave in the lead-up to the September 30th shutdown deadline is uncertain.
The president appears to be rallying support for Thune and Johnson’s efforts to push through a seven-week CR.
But if Trump becomes uneasy or feels strongly against certain spending measures, he might leverage that pressure, similar to his past decisions.
For example, in 2018, Trump initially supported spending bills without border wall funding but reversed course under conservative pressure, resulting in a lengthy shutdown.
One item not on Trump’s radar seems to be the ACA subsidies, but if he decides to weigh in, it could complicate discussions significantly.
Currently, Trump is pointing fingers at Democrats for the impending crisis.
“It’s actually been good for the country to be a closed one for a while,” he said in comments to reporters on Friday.
