On Friday, President Trump is set to engage in a critical foreign policy meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at U.S. Joint Base Elmendorf Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska.
This meeting comes as Trump seeks a ceasefire in the ongoing conflict that started with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine back in February 2022.
Throughout the conflict, Trump’s tone has varied significantly.
Initially, he and Vice President Vance criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office. However, recently, Trump has voiced his frustrations with Putin, sometimes suggesting that Putin raises hopes for peace only to follow up with new attacks on Ukrainian cities shortly thereafter.
Ahead of the meeting, there are five major questions that linger.
How substantial will the meeting be?
This stands out as the most pressing question.
There’s palpable anxiety in Kyiv and across Europe that Trump might make concessions to Putin in exchange for a ceasefire, presenting such an agreement to Zelensky as a fait accompli.
However, things might not unfold that way at all. At times, it seems like Trump might downplay hopes for a significant breakthrough during this Alaska meeting.
On Monday, he referred to the summit as a “touch” meeting. In a recent interview with Fox News Radio, he mentioned that he might consider himself “failed” at about 25%, without elaborating on what that “failure” means.
On Thursday, he did tell reporters that he believed Putin would “make peace.”
Earlier this week, during a video conference, Trump reportedly reassured European leaders that he wouldn’t negotiate any specific territorial exchanges during the meeting.
This is crucial for Ukraine, especially since Russia seeks to control several provinces in eastern Ukraine. Concessions from Trump would likely be seen as a major setback by Zelensky.
What about security guarantees?
European leaders felt a sense of optimism after this week’s conference call, as Trump indicated that the U.S. is prepared to offer security assurances to Ukraine as part of a peace agreement.
French President Emmanuel Macron referred to Trump’s commitment as “an important clarification.”
This is significant for Kyiv, which is wary of making painful concessions to Russia only to face another invasion in the future.
Leaders in Europe envision a multinational peacekeeping force deploying in Ukraine if peace can be achieved. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer even suggested that this might involve 10,000 to 30,000 foreign troops.
However, Putin appears strongly opposed to this idea. While Ukraine’s Western allies have agreed that peacekeeping forces wouldn’t operate under NATO, Trump’s lack of clear public comments regarding security guarantees could pose issues, especially if Putin reacts strongly during their discussions in Anchorage.
Will Trump be reconciliatory or conflicted?
The dynamic between Trump and Putin has captivated observers over the years.
Perhaps their most notable moment occurred in 2018 in Helsinki, where Trump seemed to favor Putin’s statements over those of U.S. intelligence. Trump described Putin’s initial invasion of Ukraine as “genius” and “very familiar.”
More recently, though, Trump has expressed hesitance about a ceasefire agreement with Putin.
At a cabinet meeting last month, he remarked about the “bulls—” being directed at Putin. Just this past Wednesday, he warned of “very serious consequences” if Putin doesn’t agree to end the conflict.
Yet, Trump remains unpredictable. The outcome of the meeting could be anything.
In any case, the interaction and body language during the press conference in Alaska will certainly be scrutinized.
Are the doors open for a three-way meeting with Zelensky?
Zelensky has expressed displeasure over the format of a Trump-Putin meeting without Ukrainian representation.
His concerns are twofold: he fears Trump might offer concessions, and he believes Ukraine should be directly involved in discussions affecting its future.
Zelensky stated earlier this week, “Whatever has to do with Ukraine can only be negotiated with Ukraine.”
In an apparent attempt to alleviate Zelensky’s concerns, Trump hinted that a subsequent meeting involving all three leaders could occur after his talks with Putin. He even suggested a face-to-face meeting between Putin and Zelensky.
However, Trump hasn’t indicated a similar one-on-one meeting for Zelensky as he has for Putin.
It would be tough to take such a potential three-way meeting as an immediate positive sign, especially if it appears Trump and Putin have made overtures that might pressure Zelensky into agreement.
Does Europe hold the key?
Ukraine’s European allies are deeply invested but reluctant to make sacrifices.
They want to see an end to the war but are cautious about inadvertently empowering Putin. While they often perceive Trump as a potentially unreliable partner, they cannot continue to sustain Ukraine independently.
Many are viewing the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting with apprehension. This could explain why European leaders are vocal about Trump’s commitment to ensuring security and his stance against territorial negotiations.
Zelensky and Starmer met in London on Thursday to discuss their expectations leading into Friday’s meeting. Starmer emphasized that the Trump-Putin conference presents a real opportunity for progress, though he also insists action is needed to demonstrate serious intent for peace.
If Trump appears overly accommodating to Putin, it’s likely Europe will initiate a more extensive diplomatic campaign.
Whether Trump would engage with these efforts remains a separate question altogether.
