President Trump is focusing on a limited ceasefire in the Ukrainian War as he tries to roll the ball in a wider peace negotiation between Moscow and Kiev.
Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected this week the 30-day ceasefire proposed by the US and supported by Ukraine, but he has shown openness to a narrower ceasefire focused on energy infrastructure, but many questions remain about its terminology and implementation.
That's what US officials are like It is expected in Saudi Arabia Next week, we have had the details out by reporting plans to hold separate meetings with Ukraine and Russian delegations on Monday.
There are things each of them hope for in their speeches, and why Trump's NATO plan is a wild card.
What Trump wants
Trump didn't meet his promise to end the war within 24 hours, but he could say there's a forward movement in the talks.
So far, his strategy has focused on putting pressure on Ukraine to concessions by leveraging military and intelligence news support while Putin opts for economic carrots or sticks.
Economic transactions appear to be a priority for Trump in talks between both Ukraine and Russia. In Trump's appeal with Putin, he emphasized that improving relations between the two countries, including geopolitical stability, “has a great advantage.”
Trump has pressured Ukraine to sign a mineral extraction contract, and after taking ownership of Ukrainian nuclear power plants this week, he has raised a new idea.
Zelensky said the discussion focused on Zaporia, the largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine, under Russian occupation, and whether the US had a role in reclaiming it in Ukraine's hands as perhaps part of territorial talks.
Trump is reportedly interested in the factory as part of his support for the mining industry in Ukraine after the war. He said Friday that a contract is being negotiated to “dividing the land” as part of the final peace deal.
President Putin declared annexation of four Ukrainian territories, including Zaporidia, despite having no full territorial control and international rejection.
Benjamin Schmidt, a senior fellow at the University of Pennsylvania Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, said the way to manage the US nuclear power plants is problematic for multiple reasons.
“Frankly, Putin will not be satisfied with either of these, because the purpose of his war was to completely undermine Ukraine's sovereignty,” he said. “And the concept that the US is saying, if not in any way an ownership of the Zaporizhzhia power plant, it would have a major downside for commercial companies that want to take that risk.”
What Putin wants
President Putin has lowered some of his requests as a negotiator for Rose Gottmooler, who served as NATO's deputy executive director from 2016 to 2019, and as a negotiator for Trump's military. “Russian Roulette” podcast It is sponsored by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
This includes Putin and his top aides easing public objections to Ukraine's accession to the European Union and changing rhetoric with the previous war goal of “excluded z” in Ukraine.
“His purpose changed and they were forced to change with the war and the way it unfolded,” Gottmohler said.
Putin remains vehemently opposed to Ukraine joining NATO to host foreign peacekeeping forces or officially regaining Russian territory, occupying Russia since the 2014 invasion of Crimea.
As long as Putin feels willing to reach a ceasefire, the Russian economy is likely to be a major motivational factor. The rise in Ukraine strikes at Russian oil and energy facilities It reportedly suppressed its oil production. At least temporarily, 10%.
And while Russia has survived most of European and international sanctions by switching to a wartime economy, it is unclear how sustainable its strategy is.
Schmidt of the University of Pennsylvania said sanctions on the Russian energy sector “have undoubtedly a macroeconomic impact on the Russian economy.”
He added that it is time to implement these sanctions more tightly and tighten export controls on the technology and commercial goods of the energy sector used in military production.
“When it comes to relations between the US and Russia, we should do what Putin understands, it's hard diplomacy, hard force,” he said.
What Zelensky wants
Trump's proposal for a limited ceasefire on energy and infrastructure is consistent with Ukraine's previous efforts in consultations with Russia over the past year.
“Essentially more agreed upon [between Trump and Putin] Samuel Carup, a senior political scientist at Land Corporation, has returned to two agreements that Russia and Ukraine almost completed last year, but has never overcome the finish line.” Post to social platform x.
This includes a talk scheduled for August on a ceasefire in energy and electricity infrastructure that was derailed when Ukraine began invading Kursk's Russian territory.
Trump and Zelensky also spoke in a call Wednesday about expanding a limited ceasefire to the Black Sea, key waterways for Ukraine's exports, and the flashpoint of fighting with Russia.
Ukrainian and Russian officials Reportedly, the final stage has been reached It was a deal for the Black Sea in March 2024, but Kiev retreated.
“I think it's very Canny that the Zelensky government now has strengthened this essentially long-standing ceasefire proposal and brought it to the table with the Americans.
“I think Ukrainians have their own very experienced negotiators and are very wise about representing their interests at the negotiation table.”
Zelensky has long said that ongoing security assurances, ideally involving the US and NATO, are a key component of the peace agreement.
Where Europe stands
Europe is noting the unpredictability of Trump as a military alliance, but is increasingly raising plans to strengthen its own defense industry and to strengthen aid to Ukraine.
“There's a lot going on. There's a lot of chatter. This chatter and a fair amount of meetings and activities reflects that Europeans take this seriously,” said John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasian Centre and former Ukrainian ambassador.
“This is difficult. It's complicated and time-consuming. But there's no doubt that in my mind there is a tendency towards a more robust defence spending and defence stance by Europeans.”
But the challenge of registering Europe with Europe over plans to support Ukraine was poses in severe relief earlier this week. European Union foreign policy director Kaja Karas saw plans for a $43 billion military aid package to Ukraine Wobbles amid pushback from European leaders.
And efforts to rally $5.4 billion in ammunition Failed to realize it.
Still, senior military leaders in over 30 countries We met in the UK on Thursday It embodies the international peacekeeping forces' plans that can be deployed to Ukraine if an agreement is reached with Russia.
And French President Emmanuel Macron announced it. An ambitious national union Backing Ukraine meets in Paris on March 27th, including Zelensky.
NATO Wild Cards for Playing Cards
Trump elicited a rare Republican resistance after reporting that the Pentagon was planning to withdraw the US leadership of the highest Allied Commander Europe (Saceur), the military commander of NATO. This position is held exclusively by the Americans in the 75-year history of the Alliance, commanding American troops in Europe and overseeing the US nuclear stance on the continent.
Trump is deeply critical of alliance members who have not yet raised their defense budget to 2% of gross domestic product, suggesting that the US will not act to protect them in the event of an attack.
And on Friday the president argued credit for reviving the alliance by urging member states to increase defence spending. He then said that NATO's deterrent factors depend on American involvement.
“President Putin will tell you that he wouldn't be worried without the US, but when the US is involved, he's worried,” Trump told reporters at the Oval Office.
There is a clear gap between Trump's allies and advisors over NATO.
Maga voices like Donald Trump Jr. and tech billionaire Elon Musk have insisted on the US withdrawal from NATO.
NATO's plans will also set Trump on a clash course with GOP senators who support robust US involvement in the alliance.
Trump dodged most of his plans on Friday.
Herbst said the debate showed that there were “people with influence in the administration.”
“So even that's what's been discussed. But someone has raised this somewhere, and that means that serious consideration is being given by the administration.”
