Seven questions Republicans need to answer after the midterm defeat

A severe stomach bug can make you think there is nothing left to bring up, and then the nausea returns. Republicans may recognize the feeling after last week’s electoral blow. They want a break. Instead, they have two more years with Donald Trump in the White House.

Conservatives have pointed to tariffs, the war with Iran, weak Senate candidates, ineffective congressional leaders and White House staff as reasons for the party’s losses. Few are willing to focus on the person who leads the party and is responsible for many of those choices.

Changing the White House chief of staff, Mike Johnson or John Thune would not change the figure voters connect with the economy, the war and corruption. An Economist/YouGov poll after the election found that 62% of registered voters disapproved of Trump’s performance. Conservative commentators may avoid criticizing him, but voters know who signs the orders, makes the promises and takes the credit. Somehow, the article argues, he is being spared the blame.

Trump has shaped the American right for a decade, controlling its message, organization and public image. Even if he changed direction now, it is hard to see how voters would trust that shift.

Since the election, he has praised his planned ballroom, defended the Iran war and tariffs, entertained claims of election fraud and defended Nvidia chief Jensen Huang amid scrutiny over reports of a relationship with a woman suspected of spying for China. Each public appearance, the argument goes, gives voters another reason to punish Republicans.

If this is how the party is responding just after a major defeat, what should anyone expect when the next crisis arrives?

Here are seven questions for Republicans who believe replacing aides, elevating the next candidate in line or making a few policy adjustments will be enough to recover.

1. How can Republicans win over younger voters when Trump points to rising stock prices and larger 401(k) balances as proof that the economy is doing well? Young people dealing with high rents and housing costs may not be reassured by a wealthy older president celebrating his portfolio. It is difficult for other Republicans to make the case that the party understands affordability when its leader says the market shows families have little to complain about.

2. How can the party loosen Trump’s grip on its candidates and organization? He is likely to keep backing people for their personal loyalty, rather than their conservative credentials or chances of winning. What space is there for an independent Republican movement while Trump remains at its center?

3. What if the economy gets worse? The war with Iran is ongoing, while the housing and AI booms may not last. A downturn could bring back the kind of electoral losses Republicans experienced in 2006 and 2008. Democrats will control Congress, but Trump will still be president, and voters are likely to hold his party responsible for the results, whether that seems fair or not.

4. How can Republicans present a new presidential nominee in 2028 when Trump is likely to dominate the campaign right up to Election Day? Some Republicans want to clear the way for Vice President JD Vance. But making the second-in-command the nominee may not be an obvious answer to an unpopular administration. Even Republicans in the George W. Bush era did not try to run Dick Cheney for president in 2008.

5. How can Republicans win back the suburbs? The party needs suburban districts to reach 218 House seats, but its image there has become deeply unpopular. Saying Democrats are worse may not be enough. What could Republican candidates offer suburban voters that would get heard above Trump’s daily remarks?

6. What is the strategy for winning back the Senate? Democrats have flipped seven Republican-held seats, with two races still undecided when the article was published. The map could be difficult for Republicans to turn around for years. Even a GOP presidential win in 2028 could be hampered by a Democratic Senate blocking judicial and Cabinet nominations. Waiting for another red wave is not a plan, and neither is assuming blue states will become competitive once Trump leaves office.

7. How will Republicans manage the next two years in Congress? Democrats are expected to investigate corruption and keep Trump on the defensive. He has already suggested he might be open to an immigration compromise. What would stop him from weakening immigration enforcement, approving poor spending deals or bargaining with Democrats, while rejecting conservative proposals on surveillance, stock trading by executive officials or data centers? Republicans could end up with policies they dislike and still take the electoral blame.

The party is losing by a wide margin, not just falling short by a little. The political outlook is bleak enough that, if the 2027 elections for governor in Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi were held today, Republicans might struggle even in states that have long been reliably red.

Another round of personnel changes or a handful of cosmetic policy adjustments will not fix this. Yet some of the people who failed to foresee the defeat now say they understand it. They have their preferred scapegoats, replacements and fundraising messages. What they lack is a convincing route back.

I don’t claim to have answers to all seven questions. But one approach seems certain to fail: asking voters to embrace the same image they just rejected.

If the right were a genuine movement rather than a self-protective industry, it would be asking how to free itself from this burden. Instead, those unwilling to confront Trump may be setting the party up for another electoral shock — and another chance to govern lost.