A recent report from Enverus, a large-scale energy data and analytics company, suggests that the swift removal of wind and solar subsidies in the OBBBA of 2025 may significantly affect these industries. The findings indicate that currently, only 30% of proposed solar projects are in development, while 57% of wind projects could remain viable as subsidies and tax incentives phase out by 2030.
This news comes amidst a series of challenges facing the U.S. renewable energy sector since President Trump took office in January. On July 16th, an internal memo revealed that Interior Secretary Dougbergham is pushing for new regulations before greenlighting projects on extensive federal lands and waters.
This requirement follows a Presidential Order issued on July 7th that mandates strict enforcement of OBBBA guidelines. In this order, titled “End America’s dependence on unreliable energy sources,” Trump instructs the Interior Secretary to adjust regulations so that wind and solar facilities no longer receive preferential treatment compared to more reliable energy sources. Additionally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been directed to abolish tax credits for wind and solar facilities.
Corianna Mah, an energy research analyst at Enverus, stated that her team’s analysis focused solely on onshore wind and solar projects, as they believe offshore wind opportunities are already limited due to high costs associated with interconnections.
The report highlights that Texas, a leader in wind power and solar generation, surprisingly sees the lowest percentage of solar projects in the interconnection queue, with only 6% expected to reach completion. This contrasts sharply with California and Arizona, where nearly all projects succeed.
When asked about the disparity among states, Mah pointed to the varying values of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs). These certificates let individuals or businesses support renewable energy without building their own projects. She noted that Texas has exceeded its Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), making these certificates primarily a voluntary compliance mechanism. In comparison, they trade at about $3/MWh in other markets like Caiso.
The report also mentions that other states, like Iowa and Illinois, have similar low survival rates for onshore wind projects. However, it adds that changes in Montana and Oklahoma could lead to increased production.
The findings align with other research indicating that the wind and solar sectors have been considerably affected by OBBBA regulations. A study from FTI Consulting verified that as wind and solar capacities dwindle, there will need to be a rapid increase in traditional baseload generation to meet rising electricity demands, especially given the expansion of AI technologies and their data centers. In the near to medium term, this demand will likely be met through gas-fired power and some new nuclear generation in the coming years.
This week, a significant investment of $92 billion was announced to create a major AI data center hub in Pittsburgh’s suburbs, supporting this trend. It seems that balancing these energy sources will play a critical role in shaping America’s future energy security.
