Trump’s Second Presidency and Gas Prices: A Review
Six months into his second term, President Trump has made significant strides in fulfilling the promises he made during the 2024 campaign. One major commitment was to lower gasoline prices, which, it appears, he has successfully achieved. During the summer of 2025, consumers experienced the lowest gas prices in four years, and current trends suggest these rates might not rise soon, largely due to an oversupplied global oil market.
Of course, many factors influence crude oil prices—most of which are beyond any U.S. president’s control. That said, the Trump administration has benefited from a favorable market environment. When Trump took office, the Brent crude index was at $79.10 per barrel, a notable increase from the $55 per barrel inherited from Biden in January 2021. Interestingly, this price is currently lower than the recent Brent index, which stands at around $68 per barrel.
Market traders have noted a shift since Trump and his energy cabinet members have been systematically undoing many of Biden’s restrictive energy policies. While a massive drilling boom isn’t on the horizon, Trump’s “Build, baby, Build” initiative aims to boost energy infrastructure, potentially increasing U.S. crude and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
Moreover, there are projections for significant new LNG export capacity, which bodes well for drilling activity in U.S. shale formations. The Marcellus shale, in particular, remains a key resource and sends substantial production to Gulf Coast facilities and beyond. Other formations, like the Haynesville and the Permian Basin, are also contributing high volumes of gas alongside oil production.
Despite the maturing nature of these shale plays, U.S. oil production is expected to rise through at least 2028. Meanwhile, gas production may continue to increase for up to a decade, driven by strong export demand and the removal of previous restrictions by the Trump administration.
Efforts by key figures in the administration, like Doug Burgum at the Interior Department, to invigorate federal onshore and offshore lease sales could lead to new oil reserves necessary to meet future global demand. Additionally, the ongoing U.S. military presence in the Middle East has helped to stabilize the region, ensuring the smooth flow of oil supplies despite recent tensions between Israel and Iran.
Combining these positive supply-side signals from the Trump administration with increased OPEC+ production and softer demand from China, lower crude prices seem likely. The peak driving season is winding down, and there’s minimal expectation for price increases in the near future.
In conclusion, it appears that U.S. drivers are enjoying a summer of low gas prices, a testament to the fulfilled promises of this second Trump presidency.
