Intelligence Linked to Better Predictions About Future, Study Finds

A recent study published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology suggests that individuals with higher intelligence tend to make more accurate predictions regarding their future. Specifically, those with higher IQs consistently provide more realistic estimates of their life expectancy than their lower-IQ counterparts. This finding could shed light on why lower intelligence is often associated with poor financial choices and other judgment errors.

I think it’s important to clarify that IQ, or intelligence quotient, is a standardized metric for assessing cognitive abilities. This includes areas like memory and problem-solving, as well as reasoning and verbal skills. Typically, it’s evaluated through various tests. While the conversation about IQ can be nuanced, it remains a popular tool for gauging cognitive capabilities and is frequently used in research to explore how intelligence impacts diverse life outcomes—like education, income, health, and decision-making.

Professor Chris Dawson from the University of Bath conducted this study to determine if there’s a connection between intelligence and the accuracy of probabilistic judgments. Essentially, he wanted to see how well individuals could gauge the likelihood of uncertain future events.

Many psychological and economic theories propose that effective decision-making relies on accurate worldviews, yet few studies have directly examined whether IQ plays a role in shaping these beliefs. Dawson aimed to address this oversight by investigating how “calibrated” people with higher intelligence are in their predictions, meaning how closely their beliefs align with statistical realities.

Accurate beliefs are crucial as they influence choices impacting health, finances, and overall well-being. For instance, someone who accurately predicts their lifespan might plan better for retirement compared to someone who overestimates how long they will live. In studying the relationship between IQ and these forecasting abilities, Dawson aimed to better understand how intelligence affects life outcomes.

“There’s a vast amount of research on how people stray from rational thinking models,” Dawson expressed. “Yet, there’s limited evidence focused on how well individuals assess the probabilities of uncertain events—key for rational decision-making.”

To explore this, Dawson utilized data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, which includes a nationally representative panel of adults over 50 in England. The research involved 3,946 participants who were interviewed multiple times from 2002 to 2019. During these interviews, participants estimated their likelihood of living to a certain age, such as 75 or 85, based on their age at the time.

These subjective probability estimates were then matched against statistical forecasts derived from national life expectancy data. This comparison enabled Dawson to determine each person’s prediction accuracy—essentially how far their beliefs deviated from what statistical data suggested.

The study measured IQ through a variety of cognitive tests, including memory assessments, numerical puzzles, and verbal tasks. The findings indicated a strong connection between IQ and the accuracy of probabilistic judgments. Individuals with higher IQs produced predictions that were closer to statistical realities, with a notable correlation showing that a one-standard-deviation increase in IQ was linked to nearly a 20% decrease in forecast errors. Moreover, those with high IQs were less biased and demonstrated more consistency in their predictions.

“Accurate probability estimations lead to better decision-making and improved outcomes,” Dawson noted. “For example, if a person overestimates the success of a business venture, they might waste resources launching a doomed project. Conversely, if one underestimates the risk of health issues, they may neglect necessary lifestyle changes.”

To support his findings, Dawson employed Mendelian randomization, which uses the randomness of genetic inheritance. By applying polygenic scores for IQ as instrumental variables, the research effectively illustrated that genetically influenced differences in IQ could predict the accuracy of forecasts. The analysis also included genetic scores for educational attainment but noted that the effect on prediction accuracy was stronger for IQ alone.

Dawson also examined the “noise” in participants’ predictions over time, noting that individuals with lower IQs tended to provide more inconsistent answers across different instances. This variability could lead to poor decisions, despite not being systematically biased in one direction.

“I previously found that lower IQ can lead individuals to be unduly optimistic about their futures,” Dawson remarked. “In this study, I initially thought those with lower IQs might also show an optimism bias, but they simply exhibited greater inaccuracies in both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.”

The study controlled for various demographic factors, like age and sex, as well as health, wealth, education, and parental socioeconomic status. This approach allowed Dawson to effectively separate the influence of intelligence on forecasting accuracy from other life factors.

However, the research isn’t without limitations. All participants were over 50 and from England, which may affect the generalizability of the findings to younger demographics or other countries. Additionally, while Mendelian randomization helps rule out certain confounding variables, it cannot entirely confirm causation, as unknown environmental or cultural factors might still play a role.

Dawson commented, “The study’s sample focused on an older cohort engaging in a specific probabilistic task, but I see no reason to think these results wouldn’t apply to younger groups or other types of probability assessments.”

Regardless of these limitations, the research highlights a significant psychological connection between intelligence and decision-making quality. By demonstrating that higher IQ corresponds with more accurate and consistent probabilistic beliefs, it suggests that cognitive ability might significantly shape how individuals view the world—and navigate through it.

Dawson is currently collaborating with a PhD student, Yuyuan Wang, to examine how individuals with varying IQ levels incorporate probabilistic expectations into their decision-making. Early findings indicate that individuals with higher IQs are more likely to invest in retirement when they believe they will live longer, while those with lower IQs show no such correlation.

The study, titled “IQ, Genes, and Miscalibrated Expectations,” was published online on June 12, 2025.