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Sun Life stock drops due to uncertain Medicaid situation leading to changes in US dental outlook

Sun Life stock drops due to uncertain Medicaid situation leading to changes in US dental outlook

Sun Life Financial Sees Stock Drop Following Profit Target Revision

TORONTO (Reuters) – Sun Life Financial’s stock took a significant hit, dropping 8.5% on Friday after Canadian insurance companies announced they would not meet their 2025 profit goals for the U.S. dental sector. This decision stems from uncertainties surrounding Medicaid funding.

The company, which bolstered its dental operations through a $2.5 billion acquisition of Dentaquest in 2022, is now projecting net income from its dental division to remain below $100 million by 2025. This comes after facing challenges in recent quarters.

Sun Life indicated that this downward revision in forecasts is largely due to unpredictable Medicaid funding, which is expected to hinder discussions with states about compensation rates and Medicaid claims.

In the U.S., Sun Life manages Medicaid and Medicare Advantage dental benefits via its Dentaquest division, heavily relying on government funding.

CEO Kevin Strain commented in an interview on Friday that there’s been a noticeable uptick in claims as people seem more motivated to utilize their Medicaid benefits before potential loss. “So they’ll go to the dentist more quickly,” he noted.

Strain also mentioned the reluctance of states to absorb rising billing costs, adding that if a major player like Sun Life is facing these difficulties, smaller companies are likely feeling the squeeze even more. “We’re going to work on how to get through it,” he said.

The U.S. market continues to be one of the company’s fastest-growing regions, but the financial landscape is challenging. Sun Life anticipates long-term net profit growth of over 12% in the U.S., with the dental division projected to contribute at least a third of that region’s overall revenue.

Following the stock decline, which encompasses both Thursday’s and Friday’s losses, Pier Manulif, which also reported weaker U.S. operations, experienced a 6.5% decrease in value.

Analyst Gabriel Decaine from National Bank remarked that the withdrawal of Sun Life’s 2025 profit target for its dental business will likely have longer-lasting repercussions. He pointed out that changes in U.S. tax laws, particularly those aimed at reducing Medicaid expenditures, could pose a threat to Sun Life’s dental operations. The impact of more stringent eligibility requirements could reduce future Medicaid enrollment.

Underlying net income in the U.S. saw a 4% decline, representing about one-fifth of the company’s total underlying revenue.

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