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Farmers’ Almanac forecasts unpredictable weather for winter. Is it reliable?

Farmers' Almanac forecasts unpredictable weather for winter. Is it reliable?


(Nexstar) – Editors at the Farmers Almanac suggest that the upcoming winter could be characterized by some dramatic weather events across the U.S. But, you know, it’s not a guarantee.

The Almanac anticipates “consistent cold snaps” stretching from the Pacific Northwest all the way to New England. It also forecasts a series of regular snowstorms in various regions, including the Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes, and parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, the southern half of the country might experience colder weather and potential frozen precipitation, particularly around Texas.

In a press release issued on Monday, the publication summarized the winter of 2025-2026 with three simple terms: “cold, snow, repetition.”

Additional predictions include a blast of extremely cold air that could affect areas from the North Plains up to northern New England in January and February, as well as a possible snowstorm impacting North Carolina and Tennessee around late winter or early spring, according to editor Sandy Duncan.

There’s also mention of cold conditions potentially affecting Northern Texas in December and February.

“I doubt we’ll see a repeat of last year’s cold and snow in some southern areas, but we’re expecting some erratic temperature swings that could keep winter firmly in place,” Duncan explained. “We might experience those ‘cold, snow, repetition’ cycles, and perhaps even some unexpected wet snow instead of rain.”

How accurate is the Farmers Almanac?

Rich Segal, a meteorologist at Nexstar, stated, “It’s a gamble to depend on any long-term weather forecast because the climate can change rapidly, sometimes within a day.”

John Gottsschalk, leading operational forecasting at NOAA’s Climate Forecast Center, affirmed that forecasting specific weather events months in advance isn’t feasible. “It’s simply not possible,” he noted.

Meanwhile, NOAA offers a seasonal forecast that includes an outlook for average temperatures and possible precipitation, but these predictions come without assurances of specific weather events.

Duncan still advocated for the Almanac’s utility, citing previous forecasts and acknowledging that they have sometimes mispredicted phenomena like the “cold spell” from January 2025, which they attributed to La Niña.

“While we can’t promise perfect accuracy, our predictions have been beneficial to generations of event planners and outdoor enthusiasts,” Duncan remarked. “We’re always refining our methods, but we understand that Mother Nature ultimately decides.”

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