Key takeout:
XRP has surged over 550% since November, reaching above $3 on Tuesday. Technical analyst Gert Van Lagen suggests this rapid growth could be part of a larger trend, potentially pushing the cryptocurrency toward $34 in this bull cycle.
So, is it feasible for XRP to exceed $30? Let’s examine the details.
XRP double bottom indicates potential 10x returns
XRP has broken free from a seven-year double-bottom formation, climbing above the neckline near $1.80. According to Van Lagen, this development is promising.
The cryptocurrency then retraced to this neckline, where it found support. In trading terms, such retests often point to a significant breakout, fostering trader confidence for higher prices.
Utilizing the 2.00 Fibonacci extension of this pattern, Van Lagen estimates XRP could hit $34 by mid-2026.
This situation mirrors XRP’s price behavior from 2014 to 2017, when a similar long-term base gave way to a parabolic surge, resulting in a 100,000% increase.
Recently, the XRP market has shown exceptionally large price movements. For instance, it recovered 1,072% from its lowest point in 2022. Before that, the cryptocurrency soared by over 1,625% between 2020 and 2021.
XRP’s rally during 2020 and 2021 was significantly influenced by the low interest rate environment in the U.S. Meanwhile, the gains from 2022 to 2025 have been largely driven by the progression of Ripple’s legal battles, better legal clarity, relistings on exchanges, and rising optimism regarding ETFs.
Looking ahead, the prospect of Spot ETF approval in 2025 is boosting XRP bulls, with a 95% likelihood hinting that the token might reach $27 if such approval aligns with Van Lagen’s projection.
Risk of overestimation in XRP ledger metrics
The expansion of the XRP Ledger (XRPL), which is the foundation of XRP, is not progressing as swiftly as other major platforms like Ethereum. The current market cap of $190 billion stands in stark contrast to its total value locked (TVL) of only $805 million, forming a ratio that’s about 2,200 times greater. This contrasts sharply with Ethereum’s figures, even as XRP’s valuation is close to 40% of Ethereum’s.
Such discrepancies have raised alarms regarding the potential overvaluation of XRP based on on-chain activities.
Related: Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP Price Surge Drives Market Sentiment to “Greed”
As of August, more than 95% of XRP was in profit, suggesting a risk of sudden price corrections, as seen in previous spikes between 2020-21 and 2022. When large holders take profits, it often accelerates sell-offs and creates additional selling pressure. These dynamics could complicate XRP’s efforts to maintain an upward trend towards $30.
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk, and readers are encouraged to conduct their own research.
