XRP recently surged to $1.50, registering a weekly increase of over 7%. This movement followed a spike in trading volume that propelled the price past the $1.45 resistance level. Currently, XRP is trading around $1.46, just above the level that has prevented it from rising since the US-Iran conflict began in late February.
Last week, the likelihood of the CLARITY Act being enacted by 2026 jumped to nearly 80%, even reaching 90% at one point over the weekend. However, that optimism dampened after banking groups dismissed a stablecoin compromise, bringing the probability back down to 62%. With the Senate Banking Committee’s interest rate meeting approaching in just three days, XRP’s trajectory might hinge on what unfolds this Thursday.
What Caused the Drop in CLARITY Act Odds?
Not long ago, polymarket traders estimated the odds of the CLARITY Act passing at only 46%. After the Senate Banking Chairman announced a rate hike for May 14, those odds surged to 79%. They briefly hit 90% this past weekend but have stabilized around 75% now. As of Monday, they sit at 62%, down 3% in just the last day.
Following the markup schedule laid out by Scott, five major banking organizations, including the American Bankers Association, officially rejected Tillis and Alsobrooks’ stablecoin proposal. Their contention is that the proposal still permits crypto platforms to offer high-yield rewards that could undermine lending to consumers and small enterprises.
In response, Senators Tillis and Lummis defended their position. Tillis stated on social media, “Some in the banking industry may not want either of those things to happen, but we respectfully agree to disagree.” Despite a firm bipartisan coalition, pushback from banks has influenced market sentiments, leading to the polymarket odds dipping by 17 points within two days. The current odds remain slightly optimistic, leaning toward passage, while Kalsi’s alternative market suggests a 69% likelihood of a similar outcome.
Despite the uncertainties complicating polymarket dynamics, XRP’s recent rally faced obstacles. After breaking past $1.45, it stalled at $1.50, prompting bearish movements. The upcoming Thursday is strategic, as banks re-engage ahead of the vote. The outcome could either sustain the breakout or revert XRP to the $1.30-$1.45 range that has confined it for most of 2026.
What May Result from the May 14th Senate Meeting for XRP?
The Senate Banking Committee is set to convene at 10:30 a.m. ET on Thursday to deliberate on the proposed rate hike. Comprising 24 senators—13 Republicans and 11 Democrats—the bill needs 13 affirmative votes to move to the full Senate, a crucial checkpoint that has stymied progress for several months.
Tim Scott has emphasized the need for all 13 Republicans to be onboard, which he calls a “red zone.” However, Senator John Kennedy has voiced reservations not stemming from crypto issues, but rather from discontent regarding a separate Senate housing bill. If Kennedy remains opposed come Thursday, Scott will require at least one Democratic vote to secure the necessary backing.
The opening remarks on Thursday will set the stage—Republican hesitance could spell trouble. The first 30 minutes will reveal amendments that could strip away Republican support. The initial competitive vote is crucial; a narrow margin like 12-11 or 13-10 would keep momentum, while a substantial margin might unravel any existing compromises.
A committee vote itself doesn’t finalize legislation. It will need to progress to the full Senate, requiring 60 votes, then coordinate with the House and ultimately the president. The administration is aiming for a signature by July 4. However, if progress stalls on Thursday, the bill might not resurface until after the Memorial Day recess starting on May 21. Senator Lummis cautioned that a missed deadline could push the bill’s consideration to 2030.
Price Predictions for XRP Based on Thursday’s Vote Outcome
The future price of XRP heavily relies on Thursday’s voting results.
If the Committee Votes in Favor
XRP had initially climbed above $1.45 on the markup news but encountered resistance at $1.50, with bears pulling it back. The support zone remains strong; behind-the-scenes investors have acquired 1.16 billion XRP, but $3 billion in sell orders loom. If no new catalyst emerges, the breakout could slide back to the $1.30 to $1.44 range, making Thursday’s clean vote a pivotal moment.
If the breakout continues, a “cup and handle” formation has been developing since the low of $1.15 on March 10, targeting $1.65 to $1.70. A clean break above the 200-day moving average of $1.80 could lead XRP to surpass $2. Yet, merely passing committee is insufficient for XRP to reach predicted highs of $3 to $5 by year’s end; full Senate approval by July 4 is critical for substantial ETF inflows into financial institutions.
If the Vote Faces Delays
Thursday represents the last real chance for the committee to address the bill before the May 21 recess, with the entire Senate taking approximately two weeks to vote. If the window closes, the bill risks stagnating until 2030. In that scenario, XRP might lose its most significant catalyst for the year and see a decline, with a trading range settling between $1.30 to $1.44 and $1.28 as a major support point.
Will XRP Continue to Rise After the May 14 Meeting?
Looking ahead, there’s potential for XRP to rise further this week. The 62% probability indicates that Bitcoin could be the main variable rather than the committee vote itself. If Bitcoin surpasses $82,000, pulling back some of its dominance, it could boost altcoins like XRP. Last year’s significant rally in XRP was largely driven by Bitcoin’s strength, which is a potential catalyst again with the CLARITY Act set for discussion on Thursday.
Still, Thursday’s price increase hinges on conditions. A solid committee vote could affirm a breakout, but any stalling may push prices back into the $1.30-$1.44 range and indefinitely delay the bill.
