Poll Suggests Bolsonaro’s Strong Position Against Lula in 2026

A recent poll in Brazil indicates that former President Jair Bolsonaro may have the highest chance of unseating the current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in the 2026 election, even though he’s barred from political office until 2030.

The survey, conducted by Paraná Pesquisas, looked at potential matchups between Lula and various conservative candidates, including Bolsonaro’s wife, former First Lady Michelle, São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, and Rogério Marinho, a leader in the Congressional opposition. Notably, three of these four pairings showed Bolsonaro with competitive standings, while Lula would defeat Marinho in their hypothetical face-off.

Brazil utilizes a two-round electoral system. If no candidate secures at least 50% of the votes in the first round, the top two will face off in a runoff. In the last election, Bolsonaro narrowly lost to Lula in both the first round and the runoff.

The elections were marred by allegations of interference from the country’s electoral authority, which prohibited discussions surrounding Lula’s previous corruption convictions. This has raised concerns about the fairness of the electoral process. Supporters of Bolsonaro staged a riot complaining about how the elections were managed on January 8, 2023.

Since his defeat, Bolsonaro has been embroiled in several criminal cases, the most severe involving accusations of attempting a coup. Lula’s government has labeled him a threat to democracy, contributing to restrictions on his political activity until 2030.

Despite these challenges, the Paraná Pesquisas poll revealed that 44.4% of participants favored Bolsonaro compared to 41.5% for Lula in a direct match. The results also indicate that Bolsonaro would perform strongly in the first round, with 35.2% support versus Lula’s 34.8%. Other candidates like Ciro Gomes received 7.9%, while Paraná’s Governor Ratinho Júnior came in fourth.

In a hypothetical second-round scenario, the poll showed Bolsonaro’s wife receiving 43.4% against Lula’s 42.3%. Tarcísio, although from a different party, scored 41.9% against Lula. Marinho garnered 37.8% support compared to Lula’s 42.9%.

The polling took place between August 17th and 21st, in the wake of various events surrounding Bolsonaro. In the U.S., former President Donald Trump, a known supporter of Bolsonaro, criticized Brazil’s prosecutors as he faced his own legal troubles. Trump had previously implemented an executive order that described Lula’s administration as a national security threat, which led to hefty tariffs on Brazilian goods and targeted sanctions against Brazilian officials.

Historically, Bolsonaro’s lead over Lula diminished since a poll released in April where he had 46% compared to Lula’s 40.4%. Despite being barred from office, Bolsonaro’s legal troubles seem to have galvanized his supporters against the Lula government and the Brazilian Supreme Court (STF), especially following sanctions imposed by Trump. One of the notable restrictions involved Bolsonaro wearing an ankle monitor and being banned from social media; he responded to these limitations by promoting a peaceful rally through video messages earlier this month.

This rally, which attracted thousands of conservatives across 62 cities globally, criticized the Lula administration and the Supreme Court, advocating for Bolsonaro’s release.

A magazine report indicated that top conservative leaders in Brazil met with Bolsonaro during his house arrest to discuss potential candidates for the upcoming 2026 election, mentioning Tarcísio and Paraná Governor Ratinho Jr. as viable options.