UK’s Fertility Rate Hits Record Low in 2024

The fertility rate in the UK dropped to its lowest level ever in 2024, marking the third straight year of decline as many people continue to delay or avoid having children.

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) stood at 1.41 children per woman in England and Wales, a slight decrease from 1.42 in 2023. This is the lowest figure recorded by the government since it began monitoring these statistics back in 1938.

The average age of both mothers and fathers has increased, with mothers averaging 31 years in 2024, up from 30.9 in 2023, and fathers averaging 33.9 years compared to 33.8 the previous year.

This pattern reflects a trend over the last two decades, where individuals are postponing parenthood. For context, in 2004, mothers were, on average, just 29 years old and fathers were 32.1.

Interestingly, London had the highest average age for parents last year, at 32.5—1.2 years older than the next region.

While birth rates among mothers aged 25 to 29 increased, there was a notable decline in births among those aged 30 to 39.

Despite a 0.6% rise in the number of births last year, the decline in the overall fertility rate persisted, largely because population growth, driven mainly by immigration, outpaced actual births.

Greg Ceely, who oversees population health monitoring at ONS, commented, “While birth rates have been falling since 2010, we did see an increase in births for the first time since 2021. Still, this growth has not kept pace with population increases.”

According to Ian Pearson in the Guardian, there are factors at play, like the larger families common among younger immigrant groups and an older native population that is becoming quieter about having more children.

Ceely also noted that the UK mirrors global trends seen in other wealthy countries, where birth rates drop as education, economic status, and women’s rights improve. “If we want to address these issues, we need to think about childcare, housing, and long-term stability,” he added.

The shifts in demographic trends, particularly with higher birth rates among immigrant families, continue to spark significant changes in the UK, even as many voters express concerns about these trends.

A report from Professor Matt Goodwin estimated that by 2063, the number of people in the UK with two UK parents could fall to a minority, dropping from 73% of the population. Social scientists predict that these demographic shifts will continue, potentially leading to a significant change in the makeup of the country by the end of the century.