China’s Moon Mission: A Competitive Landscape

The tenth test of SpaceX’s Starship has commenced, and reports suggest it has been a significant success. But what implications does this success have for NASA and its commercial and global partners in their race against China to reach the moon first?

Eric Berger from Ars Technica recently indicated that recent developments from China have stirred considerable discussions within space policy circles. These include successful tests of Chinese lunar hardware, specifically prototypes for a crewed lunar lander. Berger’s perspective adds a layer of realism, acknowledging some of the challenges SpaceX’s Starship had faced in the past.

He posits, “China could potentially ‘outpace’ NASA in the current lunar race.” This notion is troubling for many who have waited a decade for a return to lunar exploration.

While Berger might seem ready to throw in the towel, he does provide a necessary wake-up call. Soon, we could witness a historic moment—someone speaking Mandarin stepping on the moon for the first time since December 1972.

The human landing system version of Starship is pivotal within NASA’s Artemis program, which aims to return Americans to the moon after so long. Another crucial aspect of this program is the development of advanced spacesuits.

NASA plans to send astronauts around the moon with the Artemis II mission set for early 2026. However, Artemis III is contingent on the Starship’s lunar lander capabilities—much remains to be accomplished before that can happen.

Additional projects outlined by Ars Technica include:

• Rapid reusability advancements focused on heat shields and spacecraft stages.
• Fuel transfer tests in low Earth orbit to show propellant transfer between vehicles.
• Research on cryogenic propellant depots to assess thermal losses.
• Challenges in landing on the moon due to height and uneven terrain.
• Testing the spacecraft’s launch capabilities using liquid propellants without a base on the moon.
• Demonstrations relevant to Musk’s aspirations for Mars, notably the endurance of spacecraft operation.

Officially, Artemis III aims for a 2027 lunar landing, just two years away. Yet, SpaceX’s Gwynne Shotwell has conveyed confidence to NASA’s interim administrator, despite many observers doubting the feasibility of a 2027 landing—perhaps 2028 seems more realistic.

This leaves us with two pressing questions: Will China be the first back to the moon? And is that outcome significant in the larger context?

Despite Berger’s somewhat ominous conclusion, it’s far from certain that China will claim victory in this new lunar race.

Given Starship’s latest test flight success, it seems like SpaceX is aligning its efforts, possibly achieving a milestone before NASA’s Artemis III mission. Meanwhile, China could face setbacks that delay their lunar ambitions.

If China manages to land astronauts on the moon ahead of NASA, it could lead to significant embarrassment for the United States—leading to harsh criticism and debates about who truly lost the race.

The roots of such a defeat would likely be traced to long-standing errors made by politicians across the spectrum and issues within the commercial sector, dating back to abandoned deep space exploration programs that overemphasized funding over technological progress.

Yet, some might argue that the notion of merely recreating the accomplishments of a past lunar mission isn’t crucial in the grand scheme. If NASA and its partners set up a sustainable lunar base, it could overshadow a fleeting Chinese triumph.

Ultimately, the real question of this new moon race is not simply who arrives first, but rather who manages to establish a lasting presence there.

The U.S. and its allies possess significant advantages in technology and logistics, enabling them to transport large groups and supplies to the moon, Mars, and beyond.