The likelihood of tropical waves forming in the Atlantic Ocean has notably increased, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They suggest that a tropical depression could potentially form as we approach the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season this week or over the weekend.
Recently, tropical disturbances surfaced off the western coast of Africa and are currently positioned in the Eastern Atlantic, just south of the Cabo Verde Islands. These disturbances have already created some erratic showers and thunderstorms, but they have now moved into areas that appear more conducive to further development.
The NHC currently believes there’s a lower chance of any significant development in the next couple of days, but a more favorable outlook over the week is expected.
If conditions improve, this system could be identified as Tropical Depression Seven or possibly even Tropical Storm Gabriel.
The Fox Forecast Center noted ongoing weak currents throughout the tropical zone, which means it could take roughly a week for this system to reach the Caribbean region.
Moderately supportive atmospheric conditions exist between Africa and the Caribbean, yet it’s plausible for this system to quickly evolve into at least a tropical depression.
Regarding long-term predictions, the computer models are quite divided, with some suggesting the disturbances could drift westward, while others predict further intensification into either Tropical Storm or Hurricane Gabriel, possibly veering northward.
It seems that a strong dip in the Jetstream is fortifying over the eastern United States at this time.
Nevertheless, the Fox Prediction Center comments that the influence on weaker systems by the jet stream is considerably reduced. Thus, if this disturbance doesn’t evolve into a more substantial system, its trajectory becomes much less predictable.
