NFL’s Evolving Play Style
I wish I could say that the NFL has returned to a focus on the run game, but that simply isn’t true. The league has shifted heavily toward passing. In fact, over the last couple of seasons, the number of basic passing plays has dipped compared to the boom we saw in the 2010s. It’s clear you can’t establish a strong running game without a solid passing strategy and a capable quarterback.
NFL Run-Pass Correlation
There’s a clear link between effective rushing and a strong passing game. If we look at the top ten rushing teams by Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush in 2024, only one of them also made the top ten in EPA per pass—the Carolina Panthers. They ranked 18th in total rushing yards but had significant rushing performances against teams like the Las Vegas Raiders and the Cincinnati Bengals.
Examining the other nine teams reveals a similar pattern.
- Washington Commanders
- Buffalo Bills
- Baltimore Ravens
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Arizona Cardinals
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Detroit Lions
- Green Bay Packers
- Kansas City Chiefs
So what do they all have in common? They boast a great quarterback, strong set of offensive weapons, solid offensive line, effective play calling, or a combination of these. It’s no coincidence that top quarterbacks like Jaden Daniels, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts are allowing the run game to flourish. A strong quarterback and excellent playmakers make it hard for defenses to stack the box just to stop the run. On the flip side, we can look at the teams struggling with their running game.
32. Las Vegas Raiders
31. Miami Dolphins
30. Dallas Cowboys
29. Tennessee Titans
28. Pittsburgh Steelers
This bottom group has missed out on strong quarterback performances this season, compounded by Tua Tagovailoa’s injuries. The Dolphins seem to have hit a wall. Meanwhile, quarterbacks like Aidan O’Connell, Will Revis/Mason Rudolph, and Justin Fields/Russell Wilson aren’t exactly elevating their teams, nor do they have the weapons to help out.
The Eagles and the Case for Running
Let’s dive into one of the biggest arguments often thrown around by those who advocate for running the ball: the Philadelphia Eagles’ success story.
Sure, the Eagles had an impressive run game in 2024, ranking high in both rushing touchdowns and EPA for expected rush plays, as noted by Schmer Sports. But here’s the kicker—they also excelled in passing efficiency, ranking fifth in EPA per play for expected passes. In fact, they were also fourth in EPA per pass, excluding garbage time plays.
A prime example of this balance was during their Week 15 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Jalen Hurts threw for 290 yards, with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith each surpassing 100 yards and scoring a touchdown. Early in the fourth quarter, with 10:29 left on the clock, the Eagles executed a 21-play drive, running the ball 12 times, and effectively controlled the game with strategic passing plays.
Now, take Saquon Barkley. Yes, he’s a fantastic player, but would he have had the same impact without a great quarterback, elite receivers, and one of the best offensive lines? Historically, evidence suggests he wouldn’t have. Similarly, Josh Jacobs struggled to hit 800 rushing yards in 2023. But when he moved to the Packers, with Jordan Love under center and a strong offensive scheme, his production soared past 1,300 yards, benefitting from the better overall team dynamics.
Then there’s Christian McCaffrey. He’s consistently been a top-tier player, yet on a weaker team, his impact was limited. When he joined the already great San Francisco 49ers, he helped elevate their performance, which is a crucial aspect of a running back’s role in today’s NFL—serving as the finishing touch rather than the main event. So, if a team wants to effectively “run the damn ball,” they certainly need to be capable of throwing it too.
