China, Russia, and India Leaders Signal Unity Amid Differences

This past weekend, leaders from China, Russia, and India came together for the annual Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting to demonstrate their unity, although notable differences among them persist. Much of what binds them, and also what separates them, relates to energy and its geopolitical implications.

According to reports, China is looking to understand the unpopularity of American trade policies and exploit the rift between Washington and other nations. This strategy seems to align with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s long-standing approach, as he remains closely tied to Chinese President Xi Jinping.

However, a concerning aspect of the summit was the behavior of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He notably did not address India’s growing cooperative ties with China or Russia in his official remarks. His interactions with both leaders throughout the event have raised speculation about deeper cooperation with fellow BRICS members. Meanwhile, his government is engaged in ongoing trade disputes with the Trump administration.

Just last week, President Trump announced a significant increase in tariffs on Indian imports, raising them from 25% to 50%, set to take effect on September 2. Such a move is likely to stir tensions between the Modi government and the U.S.

Trump believes this decision is about leveling the playing field with one of the world’s most populous countries, noting that while the U.S. does not conduct much business with India, India has substantial trade with the U.S.

This U.S. approach towards India seems driven by Modi’s inclination over the past few years to become the largest importer of Russian crude oil. Trump appears to hope that by pressuring Putin through tariffs, the Russian leader might feel compelled to end the conflict in Ukraine.

Interestingly, the U.S. tariffs could have loopholes, as India continues to export sophisticated products to America. Large Indian refiners like Reliance Industries process Russian crude, which allows them to buy at significant discounts and sell refined products at market prices, fostering a booming industry in India lately.

While these loopholes complicate the U.S. strategy, they also diminish the potential leverage the U.S. could exert over India regarding its relationship with Russia. Alongside this, the strengthening trade ties between China and Russia as part of India’s BRICS membership incentivize Modi’s government to maintain robust relationships with both nations.

Trump often asserts that the U.S. “holds all the cards” in trade negotiations, which may generally be accurate. However, the dynamics involving India are notably more complex, as evidenced in Shanghai last weekend.