The Mets’ Unforeseen Struggles

What once seemed like a sure thing is now anything but certain.

The Mets have experienced an alarming decline, which now has them just two games ahead of the Giants for the final wild card spot, effectively knocking them out of contention for the NL East title with only 17 games remaining this season.

Even though the Mets hold a tiebreaker over San Francisco, the team has failed to inspire confidence for quite a while.

It’s hard to believe it has been nearly three months since the Mets recorded 21 wins on June 12, boasting the highest win percentage and leading their division by 5.5 games.

Since that point, the Mets’ competition has shifted significantly, with teams like the Twins and Rockies rising in prominence instead of the Dodgers and other historical powerhouses.

In fact, the Mets currently have the fourth-worst winning percentage during this stretch with a record of 31-45, performing just slightly better than teams like Washington, Minnesota, and Colorado.

The Worst Team in Baseball Since June 12

The Mets have also tumbled an astonishing 14.5 games in the division during this rough patch—this is the largest drop in the league.

At one point, the Phillies were trailing the Mets by 5.5 games; now they enjoy a nine-game lead.

The struggles are largely due to pitching woes. The Mets are currently posting a 5.01 ERA—fifth highest in the league— and their starters have a 5.08 ERA, which places them near the bottom as well.

Interestingly, they had one of the best ERAs in the league at 2.83 prior to June 12. Their starting pitchers were leading at 2.79, while the bullpen excelled with a 2.51 ERA.

Fortunately, the Mets’ hot start has given them some breathing room, and the teams chasing them—like the Giants and the Reds—aren’t exactly the toughest competition.

Despite these setbacks, Fangraphs still gives the Mets an 87.8% chance of making the playoffs, compared to just 7.4% for the Giants, 5.4% for the Reds, and 0.7% for the Diamondbacks.