During President Rodrigo Chavez’s time in office, exchange rates became a key discussion point. A strong Costa Rican currency has led to significant uncertainty across different sectors.
Authorities from the Costa Rica Central Bank have repeatedly indicated that the dollar exchange rate remains stable. Last year, the value closed at ¢511.27, while as of July 23, 2025, the foreign exchange market average was around 506.20.
The BCCR reports that the country continues to experience a surplus, meaning supply is currently outpacing demand. From January 1 to July 23, the average daily surplus reached $28.5 million, which is slightly up by $0.4 million compared to the same period in 2024. The total surplus for these months was $4,017.9 million.
However, the bank mentioned that it has acquired part of this surplus—specifically $3,295.1 million—which has helped boost its financial reserves and fulfill requirements for the non-bank public sector. Up until July 23, 60.2% of what was exchanged in the market was acquired by the bank.
Experts are starting to weigh in and share their economic projections regarding exchange rates for the remainder of the year.
Roxana Morales, who coordinates the Economic and Social Observatory at the National University, anticipates that the exchange rate will fluctuate between ¢507 and ¢517 for the rest of the year. She emphasized that economics is inherently uncertain, and exchange rates are no exception. Various factors could push the currency either higher or lower.
On one hand, if market availability dips below a dollar, it could drive prices up. A reduction in dollar inflow may stem from decreased tourism and lower foreign direct investment, driven by economic uncertainty in the U.S. stemming from tariff changes by the Trump administration.
Additionally, a decrease in exports is a possibility since the U.S. is Costa Rica’s primary trading partner, which would also mean fewer dollars circulating in the country.
She pointed out that ongoing geopolitical tensions could influence raw material prices in global markets. This could mean importers would need more dollars to procure supplies, leading to potential price hikes.
Adriana Rodríguez, the general manager of Acobo Puesto de Bolsa, offered a similar outlook. She believes scheduled dollar sales will help keep exchange rates low as the year winds down. Events such as tax payments and year-end bonuses will compel businesses to bring in dollars to fulfill their obligations.
“Dollar availability is limited. It’s a bit premature to make any definitive conclusions, but it might suggest surplus markets due to a decline in economic activity in specific sectors that generate foreign exchange,” Rodríguez stated.
Economists also pointed to the exits of semiconductor firms like Intel and Qorvo, noting that these changes have several repercussions for the foreign exchange market. The decrease in dollar inflow for wage payments diminishes the surplus in the forex market, limiting the overall dollar flow that previously came from semiconductor exports. This situation also affects their supply chain partners, who might see reduced activity based on the currency they deal with.
Experts agree that the outlook could shift in 2026, contingent on the results of upcoming elections in February.
