Midterm Elections Focus on New Jersey and Virginia

Every four years, during non-election years, political insiders tend to spotlight two states: New Jersey and Virginia.

In both places, candidates are honing in on affordability, aiming to present themselves as agents of change that voters are seeking.

Since last November, Democrats have found unexpected success in several special elections. This includes their win in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, along with two state Senate victories in Iowa and one in Pennsylvania—all in districts that Trump had previously won.

In New Jersey, with Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli in the mix, the key question is whether the 2021 election results could indicate potential growth for GOP support in what is typically a blue state.

Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill currently leads in polling against Ciattarelli, but the outcome is likely to be close.

Sherrill, a moderate Democrat and Navy veteran, needs to address the significant dissatisfaction among New Jersey residents regarding the high cost of living. Recent polling from Rutgers shows that a staggering 85% of residents disapprove of the state’s handling of affordability, while 80% feel similarly about taxes.

Even with attempts to tie her to higher taxes and increased spending, data indicates she’s still making a strong case for herself.

A recent Quinnipiac poll revealed that 52% of New Jersey voters believe Sherrill has “strong leadership skills,” and about 50% think she is concerned with their needs and issues.

Democrats also have two notable advantages that could aid Sherrill’s campaign.

Firstly, President Trump is quite unpopular in New Jersey, with only 30% of voters viewing him positively, and Ciattarelli has previously aligned himself with Trump.

Secondly, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state by a significant margin—37% to 25%—which equates to roughly 860,000 voters.

However, there is a caveat: Ciattarelli’s strong showing in 2021 and Trump’s improved performance in the state during the 2024 elections are important factors to consider.

Last year, Trump lost New Jersey by just six points—a notable difference from his 2020 and 2016 losses, showcasing potential support from the state’s 2.4 million unearthed voters.

The Democratic National Committee has invested $3 million in boosting Sherrill’s campaign, which is more than their Republican counterparts have spent, who contributed around $2.5 million.

In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger appears to have a similar lead over her opponent, Incumbent Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, trailing by just 7 points in some recent polling.

Though Spanberger has seen her lead shrink from a stronger double-digit advantage earlier this year, she still maintains an edge over her Republican opponent.

Like New Jersey, the primary focus in Virginia is also on the cost of living and economic issues.

The dynamic resembles that in New Jersey, where voters are frustrated with the current state of the economy and are seeking change.

Yet, Trump’s approval ratings in Virginia could hurt Earle-Sears just as they might for Ciattarelli. Currently, only 39% of voters approve of Trump, while 58% disapprove.

In contrast, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin seems to be taking a more proactive approach than his New Jersey counterpart, Phil Murphy. Even though Spanberger’s lead has somewhat narrowed, it seems likely that Sherrill’s has remained steady.

Another race worth monitoring is in California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom is pushing for a vote on redistricting this November. Polls indicate that many Californians oppose partisan gerrymandering, yet the results could serve as a reflection on Trump’s influence.

Newsom has staked a significant amount of political capital on this referendum’s success. If he manages to see it through, it could be a boon for Democrats, especially going into a challenging 2028.

In summary, Democratic victories in these races could provide a much-needed boost heading into the midterm elections, despite ongoing obstacles facing the party nationally.

A significant Republican turnout, however, could solidify Democratic minority status for the foreseeable future.