In the early moments of the second half of the game featuring the Carolina Panthers and the Arizona Cardinals, things looked bleak for the Panthers, with a score of 27-3 against them.
But then, Carolina surged, scoring 19 unanswered points and narrowing Arizona’s lead to 27-22. They even managed to recover onside kicks, giving them a chance to pull off a win in the final seconds, which felt like a glimmer of hope amid an otherwise lackluster performance.
Last week, though, the Panthers completely dominated the Atlanta Falcons, winning 30-0.
Could this trend indicate something similar in our weekly picks on spreads?
After starting 1-2 in the first couple of weeks, we turned it around to 2-1 last week, so maybe, just maybe, there’s a sign of life. The Detroit Lions managed to improve to 4-5 this season, while the Kansas City Chiefs covered a 5.5-point spread versus the New York Giants, and, well, the Baltimore Ravens took quite a beating.
It’s not a huge turnaround, but it feels like honest progress.
Now, let’s dive into this week’s picks. As usual, I’m basing the lines on Fan Duel.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
Fan Duel Line: Seattle -1.5
Spread Pick: Seattle -1.5
I typically avoid Thursday night games. They have this weird tendency to throw surprises at us, like when the Buffalo Bills won against the Miami Dolphins but didn’t cover the spread. It’s just odd.
However, considering the Arizona Cardinals, they barely scraped by with a narrow 27-22 victory over the Panthers at home.
In Week 1, they managed just a touchdown over the New Orleans Saints, while they were trounced by the San Francisco 49ers led by a less-than-stellar Mac Jones. Now they face the Seattle Seahawks, who just put up a solid win against the Saints the week before.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
Fan Duel Line: Green Bay -6.5
Spread Pick: Dallas +6.5
Mika Parsons’ return to Dallas in a Packers uniform should stir up some chatter this Sunday.
There’s been speculation about his performance, and during my radio discussions with Bill Michaels in Wisconsin, we talked about the potential for 2.5 sacks being the over/under for Parsons…
But, yeah, while the Packers’ defense might pose challenges for the Cowboys, Green Bay has some issues of their own. Jordan Love was sacked five times against the Cleveland Browns, and all those came from a four-man rush. Their banged-up offensive line is going to be a factor, and though the Cowboys don’t have a player quite like Miles Garrett, they still have a chance to pressure Love.
This could tighten the game. I hope Green Bay clinches it, but honestly, I think Dallas can hold their ground.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
Fan Duel Line: Baltimore -1.5
Spread Pick: Baltimore -1.5
When the NFL schedule makers lined up this game for week 4, they probably expected the winner to look like a strong contender.
Now, though, the winner will only inch up to .500, while the loser sinks to 1-3, which isn’t a pretty spot to be in as the playoff race heats up.
Interestingly, this matchup might hinge on the rushing game. Both the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs have struggled on the ground for the past three weeks. Baltimore has allowed the highest expected points added per rush this season—second-worst in the league.
Meanwhile, Kansas City is right behind them, ranking fourth in their league for rush defense.
The difference? Baltimore has a much stronger rushing offense compared to Kansas City.
Last week: 2-1-0
Season Record: 4-5-0
