NFL forecasts and selections for Week 4 lineup

September 27, 2025

If it weren’t for bad luck, we might not have any luck at all.

Sunday

New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)

This matchup looks enticing, but we should consider a few factors. The Giants are relying on rookie quarterbacks, which hasn’t gone well historically. Data from 2009 to 2018 indicates that rookies making their first mid-season start have a record of 26-31-1 against the spread. So, it’s a tough challenge for the Giants, especially with Jaxson Dart starting. My model suggests a probable score of around 27.83 to 16.97, giving a clear edge to Los Angeles.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)

We knew Carson Wentz would be a wildcard for the Vikings, but nobody expected a 48-10 blowout—pretty surprising for even the most loyal fans. This game isn’t my favorite, but I still see some potential. Pittsburgh’s defense has struggled, which could allow for some regression in their favor. The predictive score is close, at 19.88 to 19.57.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5)

This game is riddled with injuries, which complicates things. My model has the Eagles as 4-point favorites, but the Buccaneers actually present a decent challenge. They have a strong run defense, ranked fourth in yards per carry, which might disrupt the Eagles’ ground game.

Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints (+16.5)

I’ve backed the Saints this season, so feel free to call me foolish if they let me down again. My model predicts a 10-point spread, which provides a slim edge of 7.35%. With Spencer Lattimer expected to hold down the Buffalo attack, it could be interesting.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders (-2.5)

Last week was rough for Michael Penix Jr., and the Commanders’ defense didn’t do him any favors. With Marcus Mariota itching for revenge, I believe the Falcons can pull off a win here. Remarkably, Atlanta ranks eighth in defense in DVOA.

Detroit Lions vs. Cleveland Browns (-9.5)

Both teams are riding high after recent victories, but Cleveland’s offense seems lacking. In fact, with Joe Flacco at the helm, they’re averaging just 4.4 yards per play this year—29th in the league. Meanwhile, the Lions are posting a much better 6.3 yards per play.

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans (-7)

Cam Ward could really use a win, but the team’s issues are not entirely his fault. The Titans’ defense has been poor; they rank 25th in pass rush efficiency and 21st in run defense. Maybe the Texans can surprise them, but I’m skeptical.

New England Patriots (-5.5) vs. Carolina Panthers

Both teams generated buzz last week, with the Panthers shutting out the Falcons and the Patriots struggling against the Steelers. New England has a slight edge based on their yardage stats.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) vs. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers appear healthier, but the Jaguars boast a solid DVOA defense. If they can leverage Travis Hunter effectively, they might just upset the 49ers.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3)

Last week was rough for the Rams, but I still believe they can bounce back. They have a strong top 10 performance in yards per play. The Colts are solid, so it’ll be interesting to see how this one unfolds.

Chicago Bears vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+1)

The Bears’ offense showed improvement last week. If the Raiders struggle like they did against Marcus Mariota, the Bears could capitalize. Chicago ranks ninth in yards per play, while the Raiders have allowed above average yards.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens (+3.5)

This game is intriguing. My model shows it evenly matched, but the Chiefs look like a strong team again. The Ravens’ secondary has shown vulnerabilities, and without Travis Kelce, the Chiefs still managed against the Eagles. I’m inclined to go with Kansas City.

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys (-7)

Revenge is on the Cowboys’ minds. Their defense is a concern for the Packers, especially with Jordan Love looking to throw deep. While my model had a spread of 6.5, with Micah Parsons back, I think the Packers can make a solid case.

Monday

New York Jets (+3) vs. Miami Dolphins

Justin Fields has an extra day to recover from concussion protocol, which may impact the game. My model suggests it will be closely contested, with scores around 19.10 for the Jets and 19.76 for the Dolphins.