Key Takeaways

• XRP has surpassed a significant level in September, which has sparked optimism for a recovery this October.

• Overcoming the resistance at $2.81 is crucial, with forecasts suggesting a potential rally to $3.62.

XRP opened the month around $2.77, following a 14% decline over the previous two weeks. There’s a sense among traders that the upcoming month might bring some healing in the market.

Price Movement of XRP

Analysts indicate that XRP is currently at a pivot point, just above the $2.75 mark set earlier in September.

This threshold aligns with the lower boundary of a symmetric triangle visible in the daily trading chart. Staying above this trend line could enhance the likelihood of breaking past the resistance at $2.86, which corresponds to the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). If that happens, a bullish target of $3.62 could be achievable.

Data from GlassNode’s Distribution Heatmap reveals a significant demand zone at $2.75, where about 1.5 billion XRP is likely to be purchased, underscoring this level’s importance.

However, a supply hurdle exists at around $2.81 (supported by the 100-day SMA), which might obstruct any short-term recovery.

Related: Will XRP’s value plunge after dipping below $3 again?

If XRP drops below $2.75, it could trigger another downturn towards $2.00, marking a bearish target for symmetrical triangles. An analyst known as Hardy mentioned that “XRP is still undergoing solid bullish integration,” adding on social media that there remains potential for upside as long as prices stay between $2.72 and $2.75.

Another analyst, XForceglobal, noted that the breakouts are robust, implying that XRP is fluctuating around $2.75 while aiming for a significant target of $20-30. As per insights from Cointelegraph, Fibonacci analysis suggests XRP might slip to $2.50 before it starts to rebound.

Challenges in October for XRP

Historically, October hasn’t been kind to XRP investors. Since 2013, the coin has closed in the negative for seven out of the last twelve months, averaging around a 4.58% decline.

On the flip side, November often emerges as the best month, with the period from October to December being particularly favorable for XRP price surges. Data from Cryptorank indicates an average growth of 51% during this quarter.

In recent years, XRP has shown impressive returns in Q4, climbing around 240% in one instance and achieving a 20% rise in the fourth quarter of 2023. The growth was exceptional back in 2017, when prices soared by 1,064% from October 1 to December 1.

However, there were significant setbacks as well, like a -39.1% loss in 2018 and a -29.2% loss in 2022. Despite the fluctuations, the final quarter of the year consistently results in noteworthy movements.

If past patterns hold true, XRP could experience a turnaround in Q4, possibly initiating a recovery by mid-October.

Potential Influence of XRP ETFs

The upcoming ETF developments in October could offer additional momentum for XRP, especially with critical deadlines set for mid-month.

Franklin Templeton’s decision regarding the XRP ETF has been delayed until November 14, while Rex/Osprey’s XRP ETF launched on September 18 with an impressive first-day trading volume of nearly $38 million.

The Grayscale decision is anticipated on October 18, with other applications facing deadlines between October 19 and October 25.

Some analysts believe a streamlined SEC standard and clarity from post-litigation cases have pushed the approval odds to 100% by December 31, potentially attracting $4-8 billion in new investments.

Nonetheless, market observers caution that this anticipated event might already be factored into the market, raising concerns that an approval announcement could trigger a “sell the news” scenario.