Data from analytics firm Kpler indicates that Russia was still India’s leading supplier of oil as of September. This comes even amid significant pressure from the US aimed at cutting off financial support for President Putin’s war in Ukraine.
Additionally, India is making strides to repair its relationship with China by reinstating direct flights between the two nations for the first time in five years.
Kpler’s findings revealed that India imported around 1.6 million barrels of oil per day from Russia in September, which means about a third of India’s oil is still sourced from there.
Most of the oil that India reduced from Russia has been redirected to Iraq, with imports from that country increasing from 730,000 to 904,000 barrels per day in September.
“Russian barrels are among the most cost-effective options for Indian refiners due to better GPW margins and discounts compared to other choices,” noted Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia.
Ritolia further mentioned that Indian refiners are “trying to gradually diversify their sources—not necessarily to replace Russia in the immediate term, but to enhance energy security, maintain steady supply, and increase economic flexibility.”
Interestingly, Bloomberg reports that India’s oil imports from Russia have declined by roughly 16% compared to last year. However, this isn’t enough to convince the US to lift a 25% tariff imposed on Indian goods as a response to these oil purchases. Indian Minister of Commerce Piyush Goyal has hinted at discussions about potentially increasing oil imports from the US.
There’s speculation that India is signaling to Russia that it can find alternative suppliers if Russian oil discounts aren’t attractive enough. This might also be a precautionary measure as there are concerns that Ukrainian airstrikes could affect Russia’s oil production capabilities.
As of now, strikes against Russian infrastructure haven’t significantly impacted India’s oil supply. In fact, crude oil exports from Russia reached a 16-month peak in September, totaling 3.62 million barrels per day for all customers.
Putin recently warned that the US has ceased applying pressure on India to reduce its Russian oil purchases, asserting that Indians “never allow anyone to humiliate” them. He praised Prime Minister Modi as a “balanced, wise, nationally oriented” leader.
Putin pointed out that India’s losses from “punitive US tariffs” can be countered by purchasing discounted oil from Russia, thus affirming India’s status as “a sovereign nation” against US demands.
Furthermore, he cautioned that should Russia stop providing discounted oil, it would face potential losses of up to $10 billion.
On another note, India’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that direct flights to China would resume on October 26, with daily non-stop flights from Kolkata to Guangzhou.
This comes after a long hiatus; flights had been halted for five years due to deadly clashes along the Himalayan border. After a stripping agreement was signed in October 2024, relations between India and China have shown signs of improvement, perhaps influenced by the cooling of India-US relations during Trump’s tenure.
Prime Minister Modi even attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Tianjin, marking his first visit to China in seven years. He had a meeting with both Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping during the summit.
The Indian Embassy in China confirmed that the resumption of direct flights is part of a broader effort to gradually normalize India-China relations.
