Sanae Kochi narrowly clinched the leadership of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on Saturday, making history as the country’s first female prime minister.
Japan is gearing up for a special election to succeed Prime Minister Isba Siger, who resigned in September following a significant electoral setback for his party. His exit comes amid public discontent related to proposed migration policies involving a large influx from Africa.
Kochi, aged 64, was often seen as a leading contender. She finished second in the previous election, which was a quick and intense race for Isba’s replacement. One of her main rivals was Niiumi, an ally of Isba, who would have become the youngest prime minister at 44 if he had won.
Kochi secured her victory in the first round of the LDP leadership vote, garnering 183 votes against Koizumi’s 164. In the final tally, she achieved 185 votes compared to Niiumi’s 156.
During her campaign, Kochi adeptly repositioned herself as a more moderate candidate compared to her 2021 run, while still connecting with populist sentiments. In a way, her approach reflected a shift within the LDP towards a more centrist stance, aligning with broader shifts in public opinion.
Her agenda for 2025 includes cutting gasoline taxes and increasing subsidies for local governments and struggling citizens. She has pledged to advance pro-center policies reminiscent of those of her late mentor, Shinzo Abe, following his assassination in July 2022. Additionally, Kochi has drawn inspiration from British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, often mirroring her fashion style.
Bloomberg News speculated that a grassroots movement supporting Kochi influenced the LDP’s choice, despite forecasts favoring other candidates leading up to the election. Investors appear optimistic about the potential of Kochi, likening her to a “Thatcherian Iron Lady,” as indicated by the rise in the Nikko Stock Exchange.
Bloomberg observed that stock performance in Japan soared during Abe’s administration but plummeted afterward. Kochi’s victory indicates a promise to revive and manage Abenomics. However, she faces the challenge of addressing public dissatisfaction alongside high inflation.
Diplomat drew parallels between Kochi and other populist leaders across the globe, such as Donald Trump and Giorgia Meloni, highlighting the rise of right-wing populism aimed at tackling issues like immigration and economic stagnation.
Kochi’s campaign resonated with growing public concern regarding mass immigration, portrayed as a solution to Japan’s demographic decline. While international narratives label this stance as increasingly “anti-foreigner,” it’s important to note that Japanese attitudes toward immigration have traditionally been more guarded compared to many Western nations.
In Japan, refugee communities are quite small, with just about 2,000 members among the Kurdish population, which has contributed to the nation’s cautious approach to immigration.
Kochi’s campaign has been characterized by its firm opposition to globalism and immigration. Among all LDP candidates, she has most strongly pledged to uphold Japanese citizenship. Interestingly, she reframed common concerns about immigration, encouraging dialogue without labeling those fears as xenophobic.
“If the public is genuinely worried, we should find a way to address those concerns. This isn’t about exclusion,” she stated during her campaign.
Kochi emphasized mutual respect between foreigners and Japanese citizens, insisting on serious consideration of public apprehensions.
Notably, she softened her stance regarding visits to Yasuni Shrine, where historical controversies exist due to honors paid to some figures considered war criminals. Previously a contentious topic, she suggested that these visits should be viewed as personal rather than political statements, hoping to honor the site without making commitments to public visits.
Though Kochi’s rise to prime minister is not assured, her path is clouded with uncertainty. The LDP lost its parliamentary majority under Isba, which was a significant factor in his resignation.
In Japan, the National House of Representatives votes first for the Prime Minister, but if the Senate disagrees, it can select a different candidate. While the LDP continues to dominate Japanese politics, governing coalitions have faced challenges.
The final vote for Prime Minister is typically conducted behind closed doors, and given the current weaker position of the LDP, some analysts predict an unexpected delay between the leadership election and parliamentary voting.
