A recent poll suggests that the five-point lead held by Democratic New York Governor Kathy Hochul over Republican U.S. Representative Elise Stefanik is set to shrink to less than a single point once voters are informed about each candidate’s background. This information comes from a Gray House poll shared with the Daily Caller News Foundation.
With approximately a year remaining until the gubernatorial election, Stefanik declared her intent to run for governor in September. While some polls still reflect a lead for Hochul, the Gray House poll indicates that Stefanik finds himself in a “very vulnerable position.” This seems to coincide with the rise of socialist Democratic candidate Zoran Mamdani, who is currently leading in the polls and could potentially bring significant changes to New York City.
The survey, which involved 1,250 likely voters in the 2026 midterm elections, initially showed Hochul in the lead at 48% compared to Stefanik’s 43%. However, when respondents learned about the candidates’ records—such as Hochul’s backing of Mamdani—her lead diminished, dropping to 46.4% against Stefanik’s 45.9%.
Stefanik criticized Hochul’s performance, stating, “The data clearly shows that Kathy Hochul, America’s worst governor, is a deeply troubled, historically unpopular and failed governor who struggles to even gain support from her own party.” The congresswoman emphasized that Hochul’s leadership has led to an affordability crisis and crime issues due to failed bail reform and sanctuary state policies.
Poll responses indicated that only 10% of those surveyed “strongly approved” of Hochul’s governance, while 44% expressed “strong disapproval.” Among her strongest supporters, just 1% identified as Republicans, while 19% were Democrats and 6% as independents. In contrast, 85% of those strongly disapproving were Republicans, alongside 8% of Democrats and 50% of independents.
While Hochul’s favorability stood at 40%, Stefanik’s was slightly lower, at 35%. Among independents, the ratings showed a stark difference: Hochul received a 64% unfavorable rating, while Stefanik had a more balanced view with 37% favorable and 35% unfavorable.
In September, Hochul voiced her support for Mamdani, noting that through their discussions, she recognized a shared commitment to ensuring safety and affordability in New York City. However, she acknowledged they did not always agree on every issue but expressed confidence in his leadership qualities.
Polls indicate that Mamdani has a lead over former governor Andrew Cuomo, yet the Gray House polling reveals the potential influence of independents in Hochul’s race if Mamdani were to succeed. Only 42% of Democrats and those leaning Democratic identified with more progressive candidates like Mamdani as opposed to traditional ones like Pelosi.
Statements from Stefanik’s team emphasize the need for change in leadership, with hopes that if she runs, voters will reject Hochul. Concerns arise as this latest poll is reported before Stefanik’s official campaign announcement.
A September Siena poll had indicated that Hochul held a more substantial lead at 52% compared to Stefanik’s 27%, though this was conducted prior to Hochul’s endorsement of Mamdani.
