Here are predictions for the NFL’s Week 6 matchups on Sunday and Monday.
Sunday
Jets (+7.5) vs. Broncos
This might be an odd start to the week’s picks, but I’m rooting for the Jets after their last-game mishap. They’ve been written off by many, yet I’m feeling optimistic. To succeed, they’ll need to commit to running the ball about 60% of the time.
My prediction sits around 23.45 for the Jets to 15.97 for the Broncos, suggesting a total under 43.5. Low-scoring games typically favor the Jets, so I’m banking on that.
Browns (+5.5) vs. Steelers
Dillon Gabriel managed quite well in his debut. The Browns’ defense should hold back the Steelers enough to let their offense shine. Pittsburgh is giving up an average of 5.7 yards per play, while the Browns lead the league at 4.4 yards per play.
Cardinals +8 vs. Colts
Kyler Murray isn’t my top pick at quarterback, but I anticipate he’ll face a tough Colts team this weekend. If he can’t play, I believe the Colts could win by about nine. If Murray’s in, that drops closer to seven. Interestingly, Arizona’s defense ranks eighth in DVOA and ninth against the run.
Chargers -4.5 vs. Dolphins
Injuries have been an issue for both squads. Still, I’m leaning towards the Chargers with a solid QB and a defense that’s been holding its own. This year, they’ve given up just five yards per play, which is impressive.
On the other hand, Miami has allowed an average of 6.6 points per game recently, one of the worst in the league, and yes, they faced the Jets in one of those games. My predicted score range is 27.43 to 19.89.
Patriots -3.5 vs. Saints
Both teams are likely at their peaks after solid wins last week. I don’t see the Saints stumbling; they needed several turnovers to pull off a win against the Giants, but they’re still formidable.
The Patriots’ defense has improved recently, allowing only 5.1 yards per play over the last three games, putting them in the top tier of the league. Plus, Christian Gonzalez is back in action.
Panthers +3 vs. Cowboys
The predictions I calculated show a close matchup, with a score of 25.68 to 24.61 in favor of the Panthers. The Cowboys may have outperformed against the Jets, but I don’t think you should overrate them here.
Dallas’ defense ranks poorly, sitting at 31st overall, whereas the Panthers are improving, currently at 19th. [Uncle] Ricodoodle Revenge Game!
Seahawks -1 vs. Jaguars
The Jaguars have had a quick turnaround, pulling off an unexpected win against the Chiefs on Monday. They lead the league in turnovers, though many view that performance as somewhat of a fluke. Seattle, however, is solid, ranking second in net yards per play, despite some tough breaks last week.
Rams -7.5 vs. Ravens
With Lamar Jackson in the mix, my model puts the Ravens at +2. Even a five-point spread seems too little against Baltimore. The Rams are thriving with great numbers, ranking high in both offensive and defensive play metrics. They’ll certainly be fired up to achieve a win this Sunday.
Raiders -4 vs. Titans
I feel like there’s still potential with Geno Smith, even if others doubt him. The Titans are struggling defensively in both stopping the run and pass. If the Raiders don’t win by a touchdown, I think it could lead to some tough discussions about their performance.
Bengals +14 vs. Packers
Joe Flacco needs to bring some energy to the Bengals’ offense; Jake Browning has not been effective. My model suggests this matchup should be closer to a 10-point spread. Turnovers always fluctuate, and Flacco should help stabilize that aspect.
49ers +3 vs. Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield has his fans, and well-deserved too, but what about Mac Jones? He’s earning his place as a capable first-round pick. The 49ers rank 16th in DVOA and the Buccaneers are just behind at 18th; however, San Francisco won the last encounter outright.
Lions +2.5 vs. Chiefs
Detroit stands at the top in DVOA and seems to be the strongest team out there. I think they might be perceived as weaker than they actually are. Kansas City has had their odd loss, yet they’re not in dire straits. Still, it feels right to trust Goff and the Lions in a potential high-scoring game.
Monday
Falcons +4.5 vs. Bills
Monday brings an intriguing matchup. I’m inclined to back the Bills who seem a bit undervalued after their loss to New England. The under could be worth considering; both teams excel in time of possession. It appears it’ll be a run-heavy game, and let’s just say that the Bills might have some defensive vulnerabilities showing.
Commanders -4.5 vs. Bears
With Jaden Daniels emerging as a standout, I see the Bears struggling, especially defensively. They rank poorly and are allowing a concerning 6.7 yards per play. Caleb Williams aims to prove he deserves to be the top pick, but I’m hesitant to invest in that possibility.
Last week: 4-9
This season: 29-42
