Monday, October 13, 2025: Overview of the euro’s performance against the dollar (EUR/USD)
Summary of Today’s EUR/USD Analysis
- Overall trend: Bearish.
- Support levels for EUR/USD today: 1.1570 – 1.1500 – 1.1430.
- Resistance levels for EUR/USD today: 1.1670 – 1.1750 – 1.1820.
Trading Signals for EUR/USD:
- Buy EUR/USD at the 1.1490 support level, aiming for 1.1730, with a stop loss at 1.1400.
- Sell EUR/USD at the 1.1730 resistance level, targeting 1.1500, and set a stop loss at 1.1800.
Today’s Technical Analysis of EUR/USD:
As the US government shutdown moves into its third week, there’s been a revival of faith in the US dollar as a safe haven. This follows threats from President Trump about imposing substantial tariffs on China next month. Consequently, last week saw an uptick in sell orders for the EUR/USD pair, with losses extending to the 1.1542 support, something of a two-month low. However, it found some stability at around 1.1622 to close out the week. Given today is a US holiday, trading is expected to remain somewhat limited, likely hovering near or below the 1.1600 support level.
Looking at the daily charts from reliable trading platforms, the current EUR/USD scenario appears bearish. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped to 37, significantly below the neutral line, indicating that sellers are firmly in control of the market. This key indicator is now around a value of 42 and seems poised for further downward movement before hitting oversold conditions. Additionally, the MACD indicator is positioned negatively. For buyers to regain traction, the price needs to rebound to 1.1800 and maintain stability above that level.
Trading Recommendations:
For traders, there’s an expectation of renewed selling activity in various currency pairs. Therefore, it might be wise to wait for stronger downside levels to consider buying but do this cautiously. With the US national holiday today, trading volumes could be somewhat restricted.
Forecast for EUR/USD in the Upcoming Months
Experts from Danske Bank indicate that the euro is currently facing increased selling pressure due to the ongoing political issues in France, with the euro/dollar exchange hovering around 1.1600. In the short term, they see the dollar’s outlook as relatively stable. However, if the government shutdown persists, the dollar could weaken, leading to an expected rise in the euro/dollar rate to 1.23 over the next year. There’s a notable decline in both demand and supply, creating uncertainty in the job market.
Generally speaking, if supply continues to dominate, significant rises in unemployment may not occur, reducing the Federal Reserve’s rationale to cut US interest rates. Nonetheless, the Fed anticipates rate cuts in October and January, with potential further reductions in April and July. The expectation is for the dollar to weaken over the medium term due to shifts in interest rate differentials.
Moreover, the bank observes that structural factors are likely to keep undermining the US dollar as demand for US assets from institutions diminishes.
On a broader scale, the bank highlights a decline in the dollar’s share of global transactions but doesn’t believe its status as a reserve currency is at risk. The potential for losses related to the US dollar seems limited, especially in the absence of viable alternatives.
