Tanking for a Player in a Changed NBA Landscape

Tanking to secure a single standout player isn’t a wise strategy anymore, especially with the new NBA Draft lottery odds. Over the past two years, teams picking 10th and 11th have snagged the top pick, which is certainly something to think about. Luckily for the team that finishes last in the 2025-26 season, there’s a strong draft class on the horizon, with at least three prospects looking like potential No. 1 picks.

The 2026 NBA Draft could boast the most impressive top three since 2003, featuring Darrin Peterson from Kansas, Cameron Boozer of Duke, and AJ Divanza from BYU. All three could easily be discussed as top prospects or even the top overall choice. Still, the college season ahead will show how they perform, but the value in securing the third pick feels similar to past years’ first picks, making this a tempting time for teams to consider tanking.

As the 2025-26 season kicks off, only a few teams clearly appear to be tanking, but it won’t be long before others join them—likely due to injuries or underwhelming play. Let’s explore how the race for the 2026 draft is unfolding.

The Sacramento Kings seem to be leaning toward a rebuild, though they haven’t fully committed yet. Domantas Sabonis remains their franchise cornerstone, joined by Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan in an interesting reunion following their Chicago tenure. In an effort to solve their guard issues, Sacramento recruited Dennis Schroder this summer. He’s undoubtedly talented but won’t replicate his FIBA success at the NBA level. Meanwhile, Keegan Murray has already faced a setback with a torn ligament in his elbow, sidelining him for at least a month. I appreciate what Malik Monk and Keon Ellis can offer, but their roles are still a bit sketchy in the grand scheme of things. While LaVine’s shooting and Sabonis’s stability are positives, the team’s overall quality, especially defensively, seems questionable. At least they have this year’s draft picks. I wouldn’t be surprised if either Sabonis or LaVine—or maybe both—find themselves playing elsewhere in a year.

Phoenix Suns…but They Don’t Have the Pick

The Suns are in a bind without a first-round draft pick until 2032. This season, the Memphis Grizzlies are eagerly hoping for the Suns’ downfall after acquiring Phoenix’s first-rounder in the Desmond Bane trade, which could yield significant benefits. Devin Booker is still the face of the franchise, but the team struggled after the Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal experiments. With both veterans now switched to new roles, Booker’s support comes from Dillon Brooks, Royce O’Neal, Mark Williams, and Jaylen Green. The roster feels oddly imbalanced—half shooting guards, half hybrid bigs—which doesn’t bode well for synergy on the court. Creating an effective half-court offense seems almost impossible without Booker. The Suns’ defense might be passable, but, quite honestly, turning it around feels like a tall order. The Western Conference is fiercely competitive, and the Suns are lagging. I think Karman Maruaha, someone I ranked as a top-three player in the 2025 draft class, could be amazing eventually, but expecting that in his rookie season seems unrealistic. It might have been wiser for the Suns to trade Booker for future picks over the summer. As it stands, this team seems more likely to be bad rather than mediocre.

New Orleans Pelicans…but They Don’t Have the Pick

Will a slimmer Zion Williamson manage to stay healthy this year? If not, the reckless trades made by the Pelicans’ new front office could haunt them. They dealt an unprotected first-round pick for 2026 to the Atlanta Hawks to draft Derrick Queen in the 2025 draft. Queen, alongside No. 7 pick Jeremiah Fears, sets the stage for the franchise’s future, but they still heavily rely on Williamson’s health. Zion’s previous seasons show a lack of durability: 30 games last year and just 29 in 2022-23, though he did play 70 games in 2023-24. It’s not impossible for him to have a healthier season. If they were in the East, these Pelicans could be playoff contenders, but the West looks daunting without an MVP-caliber performance from Zion.

I hesitate a bit regarding the Charlotte Hornets. I’d like to think they can make a leap similar to last year’s Pistons, but my confidence is, well, shaky, especially after last season’s poor predictions. LaMelo Ball has missed an alarming 141 games over the past three years. Until he can show he can stay healthy, it’s hard to envision the Hornets rising above the bottom ranks. Despite his talent, the fact remains that putting faith in him feels a bit reckless. The team needs Brandon Miller to thrive this year after his injury-laden sophomore campaign. Con Knuppel, the fourth overall pick, could fit well alongside Ball and Miller, although expecting significant rookie impact might be asking too much. The frontcourt remains weak, with no starting-caliber center on the roster, and Miles Bridges remains an unsatisfactory addition. At least I’m optimistic about rookie Ryan Kalkbrenner’s potential. If Ball becomes an All-Star and Miller finds his rhythm, maybe, just maybe, the Hornets could sneak into the play-in. But, again, might they lean toward tanking once more?

The Brooklyn Nets overachieved last season, which wasn’t quite the plan for their tanking strategy. They were hoping to land Cooper Flagg but ended up with the No. 8 pick instead, selecting BYU’s Egor Demin. With five first-round picks in hand, Brooklyn is set to play the long game this year with their younger players. There are familiar names—Michael Porter Jr., Cam Thomas, Terrence Mann, and Nic Claxton—but I don’t see them being part of the franchise’s future beyond Claxton. Jordi Fernandez, their coach, seems promising but will likely face many losses this season regardless of his strategies. Without a first-round pick in 2027 due to swap rights with the Rockets, the Nets need one of those top prospects like Boozer, Peterson, or Divanza to build the future and maybe make a free agent splash afterward.

Since trading Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, the Utah Jazz haven’t seen much lottery luck. They picked up Ace Bailey with the No. 5 pick in the 2025 Draft, but they’re hoping for much more now. Young players will have the chance to develop, which could lead to many losses in the competitive West. Lauri Markkanen probably won’t be on the team long-term, as his max contract could turn off potential buyers. While Markkanen and Walker Kessler form a decent frontcourt, the roster is filled with one-dimensional players. Bryce Sensabaugh can score, Isaiah Collier delivers fast-paced assists, and Kyle Filipowski provides flexibility as a young big, but expecting wins from them seems unrealistic. Bailey could become a fun player to watch, especially under the guidance of coach Will Hardy, but I expect Markkanen to be moved at the deadline, with a significant tank effort in the second half.

The Wizards have won a sum total of 33 games combined over the past two seasons. They’re improving but lack a franchise player to help their young prospects grow. Alex Sarr, the 2024 No. 2 pick, shows promise as a mobile 7-footer, but he needs to improve his scoring and could use a veteran point guard. Tre Johnson might challenge for Rookie of the Year with his shooting skills, but there’s room for improvement. Veteran presence from CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton isn’t making a substantial difference. This roster is downright precarious, and unless players like Bilal Koulibaly or Cam Whitmore take a significant leap, the season could be a total wash. Washington desperately needs a top-three pick this year, looking likely to end up as the league’s worst team.

Honorable mentions: Sixers, Grizzlies, Celtics, Pacers, Bulls, Blazers, Spurs.