October surprises impact governor races in Virginia and New Jersey

Upcoming Gubernatorial Elections in Virginia and New Jersey

As Election Day in 2025 approaches, only two states—Virginia and New Jersey—are facing significant surprises during this election cycle.

In Virginia, the race for attorney general has taken a controversial turn, as allegations have emerged regarding Republican attempts to influence the vote. This has compelled Abigail Spanberger, the former Democratic candidate, to reassess her strategy, despite generally leading in polls against Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earl Sears.

Meanwhile, in New Jersey, Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill’s gubernatorial bid has been rocked by accusations surrounding her Naval Academy records. The situation intensified recently when she claimed that Republican Jack Ciatarelli was “colluding” with pharmaceutical companies linked to the opioid crisis affecting thousands in the state.

Traditionally, Virginia and New Jersey are the only states to hold gubernatorial elections in the year after a presidential election, making these races a focus for political analysts as they signal potential trends for the coming midterms.

With just three weeks remaining until voting, the current state of both elections is as follows:

Virginia

Democratic candidate Jay Jones has been under severe scrutiny ever since a damaging text message surfaced. In it, he made a troubling comparison between former House Speaker Todd Gilbert and notorious figures like Hitler, saying that if given the chance, he would shoot Gilbert.

This has led to numerous calls for Jones to withdraw, particularly from his GOP opponents. Earl Sears has been quick to connect Jones’s remarks to Spanberger, urging her to address the situation. During a heated debate last week, Earl Sears pressured Spanberger to encourage Jones to step down.

While Spanberger condemned Jones’s comments as “abhorrent,” she stopped short of withdrawing her support for him. Earl Sears has continued to apply pressure, suggesting that Spanberger’s reluctance to act indicates her alignment with Jones’s views.

Political experts are divided on whether this controversy could impact the race significantly. David Richards, a political scientist at the University of Lynchburg, pointed out that though the scandal has heightened awareness, early voting is already underway, which may limit any potential fallout.

New Jersey

Sherrill has doubled down on her allegations against Ciatarelli, asserting that his ties to opioid companies have contributed significantly to the ongoing epidemic. Speaking at a press conference, she accused him of facilitating access to harmful drugs through collaboration with these firms.

Ciatarelli, in response, vehemently denied her accusations during the debate, labeling her claims as false. His campaign has signaled plans to pursue legal action for defamation against Sherrill.

Additionally, recent revelations regarding Sherrill’s military records caused further turmoil. An unauthorized release of documents contained personal information, including her Social Security number, leading to accusations that Ciatarelli’s camp was engaged in a “witch hunt.” Both sides have demanded investigations into the disclosures.

Despite the heightened drama surrounding these races, polling suggests little change in voter sentiment. Sherrill maintains a slight lead, yet it’s unclear whether the intense exchanges will influence voter turnout, which is typically low in New Jersey elections.