Election Outlook for Democrats Dims as 2026 Approaches

On Wednesday, Harry Enten, a data analyst for CNN, provided a concerning assessment for Democrats with the 2026 election cycle nearing.

He referred to the Calci prediction market, highlighting that back in April, Democrats had an 83% likelihood of winning the House. However, that figure has now dwindled to 63%.

A partial transcription follows:

Bolduan: You’re tracking the odds—what shifts have you noticed?

Enten: Certainly! If we look back six months, specifically to April, there was a strong indication that Democrats would secure control of the US House of Representatives; the odds were at 83% then.

But lately, that probability is sharply declining. Currently, there’s only a 63% chance, while Republican odds have soared from 17% to 37%. It seems Democrats are still in a competitive position, but the landscape is changing rapidly.

Bolduan: What exactly has led to this change?

Enten: To understand this, we need to consider the overall mood of the country and voter sentiment. Comparing current circumstances to 2017 and 2018 gives us insights. Back then, during Trump’s first term, the Democratic Party had a stronger collective support.

Returning to April, I noted a significant number of Democratic candidates showed promise for the 2025 elections. Yet now, they’re struggling to maintain the momentum from 2017 and 2018. At that time, Democrats enjoyed an 8-point advantage. I remember discussions, including my own, about how well-positioned they seemed despite Republicans controlling the House, Senate, and Presidency, but this year feels different.

Ultimately, that momentum isn’t evident anymore, Kate. The Democratic Party has stabilized but at a slower pace. Back in 2017, they were leading in the popular vote, but now it seems they’re lagging behind where they need to be. A lot of observers, myself included, are wondering if just a small lead will be sufficient, particularly considering potential changes in district lines, right, Kate?