On Tuesday, gold experienced a dip, yet metal trading has notably surpassed artificial intelligence on Wall Street this year, even as AI has contributed to record highs in the stock market. Gold crossed the $4,000 per ounce mark in early October and recently soared above $4,300, marking a year-to-date increase of over 50%. Silver, too, is trading at impressive levels, up more than 60%. This surge is happening despite a slight drop in metal prices due to easing trade tensions between the US and China. President Trump mentioned on Monday that he anticipates a “very fair and very nice” agreement with China’s President Xi Jinping later this month.
In 2025, precious metals gained traction due to worries over global trade, expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and a weakening US dollar. However, the extent of gains for gold and silver is remarkable, especially with strong stock market performance. Both the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 indices have seen increases of over 19% and 14%, respectively, setting new records this year, largely driven by enthusiasm surrounding AI investments. In fact, these metals have outperformed AI giant Nvidia’s rise of over 34%.
David Wagner, head of equities at Aptus Capital Advisors, commented to CNBC, noting that the market perspective on gold seems to be evolving. “It’s not just a hedge for currency or a portfolio anymore,” he explained. Investors are increasingly viewing gold futures as a finite asset in light of Wall Street’s movement towards the “low currency” trade, which essentially involves lessening the value of the U.S. dollar in response to government borrowing and monetary printing, leading to pivoting into gold or other assets. Wagner mentioned, “Given the current debt situation and annual currency depreciation due to inflation, there’s a real desire for owning tangible assets.”
He also observed that there’s been a shift in the way gold is perceived over the last few years. Gold has steadily outperformed the broader market since the tech bubble peaked in 2000, with this trend becoming evident in 2022, amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which led the US and the EU to freeze Russian central bank reserves. Peter Boockvar from One Point BFG Wealth Partners noted that this event prompted a reconsideration of US dollar reserves globally. Central banks are expected to significantly ramp up their gold purchases, a trend that not only began in 2022 but is expected to continue into 2023 and 2024.
This year’s pace of gold buying has intensified following Trump’s earlier decision to implement “reciprocal” tariffs on various nations. The US dollar has faced declines in 2025, particularly due to mounting uncertainty surrounding these tariff measures, driving foreign investors to seek gold as a viable alternative.
According to Deutsche Bank, gold’s share of global reserve assets hit 24% in the second quarter of this year, the highest since the late 1990s. Boockvar highlighted that retail and institutional investors, who were previously selling off, have started returning as prices rise, evident in the uptick of gold ETF holdings.
Looking ahead, Boockvar cautioned that gold and silver might be set for a short-term lull after their substantial year-to-date rallies, although he remains optimistic about them as investments, suggesting readiness to buy at upcoming market prices. On Tuesday, both spot gold and silver had already lost momentum, declining over 5% and 8%, respectively.
Investment strategist Ross Mayfield from Baird remarked that the future outlook for gold might not align with AI’s trajectory. He mentioned that there are stronger growth narratives surrounding AI, such as its revenue potential and rapid advancements.
Louis Navellier from Navellier & Associates holds an optimistic view on gold’s future, citing a general mistrust in global central banks and governments as a driving factor for rising interest in the metal. “With worldwide interest rates falling, central banks will need to keep cutting rates,” he stated, asserting that while the US remains a stable haven amid global issues, it’s still the best choice within a period of turmoil, leading to expectations for continued gold price increases.
