EUR/USD held steady during North American trading on Thursday, with the dollar gaining slightly over 0.05% as investors awaited US inflation figures for September. Currently, the pair is at 1.1617 after dipping to 1.1585 earlier.
Before key CPI trends, market movements remain slow amid sparse data and caution.
Limited economic data emerged from both sides of the Atlantic, where U.S. home sales in September surpassed expectations month-on-month.
The White House disclosed that US President Donald Trump plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday. Before that, he will see new Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Tuesday and then the South Korean president on Wednesday.
Despite some data being released, EUR/USD remained largely unaffected as traders focused on US trade discussions with China, particularly as the US government shutdown continued into its 23rd day. Eyes are on the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, with both headline and core CPIs anticipated to exceed 3%.
In Europe, the consumer confidence index rose to -14.2 in October from -14.9 in the previous reading.
This week’s euro price
The table below summarizes the percentage change of the Euro (EUR) against key currencies this week, with the euro showing the strongest performance versus the Japanese yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | australian dollar | new zealand dollar | swiss franc | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.40% | 0.77% | 1.33% | -0.21% | -0.38% | -0.33% | 0.38% | |
| EUR | -0.40% | 0.38% | 0.99% | -0.60% | -0.67% | -0.80% | -0.00% | |
| GBP | -0.77% | -0.38% | 0.37% | -0.97% | -1.05% | -1.17% | -0.39% | |
| JPY | -1.33% | -0.99% | -0.37% | -1.56% | -1.71% | -1.72% | -1.03% | |
| CAD | 0.21% | 0.60% | 0.97% | 1.56% | -0.13% | -0.20% | 0.59% | |
| australian dollar | 0.38% | 0.67% | 1.05% | 1.71% | 0.13% | -0.12% | 0.66% | |
| new zealand dollar | 0.33% | 0.80% | 1.17% | 1.72% | 0.20% | 0.12% | 0.78% | |
| swiss franc | -0.38% | 0.00% | 0.39% | 1.03% | -0.59% | -0.66% | -0.78% |
The heat map illustrates percentage changes between major currencies. The base currency is in the left column while the quote currency is in the top row. For instance, selecting EUR from the left and moving to USD along the horizontal line will show the percentage change indicating EUR (Base)/USD (Quote).
Daily market trends: EUR/USD remains flat, awaiting US CPI
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the dollar’s performance against a range of currencies, rose 0.06% to 98.94, limiting gains in EUR/USD.
- Investors are looking forward to the US CPI release ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision next week. Both overall and core CPI are expected to edge up slightly to 3.1% year-on-year. These numbers will be important as the Fed shifts its focus from inflation concerns to the labor market.
- The Federal Reserve is likely to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to a range of 3.75% to 4%. Some traders anticipate an additional 0.25% cut during the December meeting.
- A European Central Bank official mentioned that “the next rate cut could just as easily be a rate hike,” contrasting with another official’s statement suggesting a higher likelihood of rate cuts than increases.
- In trade developments, French President Emmanuel Macron has urged the EU to leverage its strongest trade measures, specifically anti-coercion tools, against China.
Technical outlook: EUR/USD is steady but slightly optimistic
The technical outlook for EUR/USD has improved slightly, though it remains neutral as it trades under the confluence of the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1653 and 1.1658, respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below the neutral 50 mark, indicating a rise in bearish pressure.
Support is noted at 1.1600, followed by 1.1550 and then 1.1500. Should the price drop below these levels, it could expose the August 1 cycle low near 1.1391. On the upside, resistance is focused around the 20-day SMA and 100-day SMA, and breaking above 1.1700 could lead to 1.1800, with the July 1 high at 1.1830.
