Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader, claims that victory in Ukraine is assured and has dismissed any peace agreements that wouldn’t grant him complete control over Donbas, the eastern region of the country.
But, honestly, that’s hard to buy. Russia isn’t exactly winning this war.
After nearly four years of attempts, they’ve still failed to subdue a smaller, less powerful foe.
The Russian military remains significantly outmatched, and Ukraine’s defenses are really hindering their efforts.
This year, Russia has managed to hold only 0.6% of Ukraine, while suffering losses of about 1,000 soldiers every day.
Their troops are struggling to maneuver effectively or advance rapidly.
Since 2022, they haven’t taken any major Ukrainian cities.
Instead, they find themselves fighting to secure minor fields and towns, all while facing massive, unsustainable losses.
Putin hangs on largely thanks to the backing of China, North Korea, and Iran.
He’s forged a disturbing alliance, positioning himself among some of the world’s more hostile powers and bolstering them.
However, a win in Ukraine remains out of reach. And even with our strength, they will not triumph.
Here are a few things for Americans—especially those doubtful about Ukraine’s stance—to consider:
- Ukrainian drones effectively keep the Russian military from using tanks and larger vehicles, forcing them into small infantry units of just a few soldiers. Many Russian troops suffer heavy casualties after advancing mere meters.
- The Institute for the Study of War has noted that since July 1, 2025, Russian forces have gained about 1,420 square kilometers—an average of just 13.5 square kilometers per day. That pace is woefully inadequate for modern warfare.
- In May 2025, Russian forces incurred approximately 71 casualties for each square kilometer gained. This figure varied slightly throughout the summer, remaining alarmingly high.
- If Russia does not face major economic challenges and manages to recruit enough personnel (a big “if”), they may not successfully take Donbas for another 3-4 years.
- Russia’s most notable achievement this year was reclaiming Kursk with the aid of around 10,000 soldiers from North Korea—an operation that fell short of Russia’s expectations.
For now, Putin has kept the war going through extensive recruitment and financial incentives.
Yet, there are clear signs of strain within this system.
Leaked documents reveal that Russia has faced an average of 35,000 casualties per month from January to September 2025.
Furthermore, one-off signing bonuses for new recruits have been reduced.
This might push Russia toward forced mobilization of reservists—something politically sensitive that could lead to greater domestic unrest and challenge Putin’s grip on power.
All of this unfolds as Putin mismanages the economy, which is bogged down by increased war expenditures, rising inflation, labor shortages, and cuts to the sovereign wealth fund.
The cash component of this fund has plummeted from $113 billion in 2022 to about $50.26 billion in October 2025—a staggering decline of more than half.
Russia is grappling with high inflation tied to its government spending, with interest rates hovering around 16.5%.
Recent attacks on oil refineries by Ukraine have led to a gasoline shortfall of 13% to 20%, as confirmed by U.S. intelligence.
Additionally, past sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russian oil companies have cut off a critical revenue stream.
In summary, Russia’s long-term position is shaky at best, which is why they’re trying to persuade the West and even their own citizens that they’re winning and Ukraine should just give up.
Reports suggest that Russia plans to boost federal spending on propaganda by 54% in their 2026 budget compared to 2025.
They’re inundating social media with bots and paid posts to spin their narratives, making even the slightest battlefield gains seem monumental in order to skew perceptions.
The path ahead should encompass not only economic pressure on Russia but also heightened military support for Ukraine.
We should compel Putin to end this war under our conditions, rather than his.
