Expected Increase in ACA Premiums
According to a recent KFF analysis, premiums for plans under the Affordable Care Act are likely to rise by an average of 26% next year. This announcement comes just days ahead of the general enrollment period starting on November 1. It marks one of the steepest hikes since the implementation of the Obamacare initiative over ten years ago, and it does not even factor in the end of enhanced premium subsidies.
Consumers in 30 states utilizing the federal exchange, healthcare.gov, can now check early estimates of their premiums for 2026. The site opened up for what some are calling “window shopping” on Tuesday.
KFF, the nonpartisan health policy research organization, indicates that benchmark plan premiums on healthcare.gov will see a substantial average increase of 30%. Meanwhile, states managing their own exchanges are looking at an average premium rise of around 17% for benchmark plans.
But there’s a catch. Enrollees’ actual costs in 2026 will likely be significantly higher since the enhanced premium subsidy is set to expire. Some analyses suggest that monthly payments could more than double as a result.
This might catch many consumers off guard. Those browsing on Healthcare.gov will likely experience some sticker shock, as the premiums shown now reflect the removal of enhanced financial assistance.
The expiration of this aid has become a major issue in Congress, intertwined with ongoing negotiations for federal government funding. Democrats are pushing for a short-term funding measure that would extend these subsidies, while Republicans are standing firm, unwilling to negotiate until the government reopens.
Renewing these subsidies would cost about $350 billion over a decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Though the enhanced subsidies, also called premium tax credits, don’t expire until the year’s end, the effects will be felt much sooner, as ACA advocates warn. If consumers see a significant spike in premiums, they might drop coverage altogether, even if lawmakers decide to renew the subsidies later.
Back in 2018, federal exchange premiums increased again after then-President Trump cut federal funding for Obamacare subsidies that assist with out-of-pocket costs. That year saw a 37% jump in premiums, directly tied to insurers’ uncertainty regarding the future of the healthcare law.
Some states operating their own Obamacare exchanges have already indicated that premiums could at least double next year if the enhanced subsidies come to an end.
In New Jersey, for instance, premiums are projected to soar to over $2,780 annually. This reflects an average rise of 174% largely due to the end of enhanced subsidies, along with a 16.6% rate increase from insurance companies. Approximately 60,000 people enrolled in Get Covered New Jersey will lose all federal financial aid for their premiums in 2026.
“Consumers will soon be shopping and comparing health plans, but without these enhanced tax credits, they will face shockingly high premiums,” remarked Secretary Justin Zimmerman. “We are quite concerned that many households will have to settle for plans with less coverage or perhaps no coverage at all.”
In Colorado, premiums for Connect for Health members are slated to jump by an average of 101% next year, leading to around 75,000 residents potentially losing their health insurance.
For a family of four in the Denver area earning about $128,000 annually, the loss of premium assistance could mean an increase of $14,000 annually for a standard silver plan.
If the more generous support were continued, enrollment might rise by 16%, suggesting that the loss of subsidies could have considerable repercussions for many.
This year, enrollment under Obamacare reached a remarkable high of 24 million, thanks to expanded subsidies introduced by a Democratic Congress in 2021 and again extended the following year.
Around 17 million individuals registered for coverage in 2025 through healthcare.gov, with an additional 7 million in states that manage their own exchanges.
Interestingly, many Republicans reside in states where enrollment has surged and will also be impacted by the end of enhanced subsidies.
The more generous subsidies made it feasible for numerous low-income Americans to secure insurance at little to no monthly cost, while also broadening eligibility for many middle-class families.
However, the increased aid also raised the door to exchanges for less scrupulous brokers and agents, who might have exploited the system for their own benefit.
As the expiration of subsidies looms, analysts predict a significant drop-off in exchange participation. A Congressional Budget Office analysis has estimated that by 2034, roughly 4 million additional people might be uninsured, and related proposals could leave about 10 million without coverage.
