Trump’s Upcoming Meeting with Xi Jinping

President Trump is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping shortly. While it’s likely that Trump will want to discuss trade agreements, Xi will have his own priorities to highlight, especially concerning Taiwan. Recent developments in the trade war suggest that China is taking a firmer stance.

A recent report indicates that Beijing aims to craft a significant deal that aligns both U.S. and Chinese interests. This agreement might address Taiwan’s critical issues in exchange for economic concessions from China.

It appears Xi desires a shift in U.S. policy, specifically from not supporting Taiwanese independence to actively opposing it. Trump should consider a variation of this agreement during their meeting.

Although trade tensions will be a focal point, a new accord regarding Taiwan could strengthen the overall bilateral relationship.

Historically, U.S. foreign and defense policies have been influenced by the notion that Taiwan is a crucial national security interest. However, that view is somewhat misleading.

This perception has been shaped by various factors, including substantial funding to think tanks in Washington advocating for Taiwan. Mismanaging U.S. policy towards Taiwan could have severe repercussions, possibly leading to a conflict akin to the Russia-Ukraine war.

How can the U.S. navigate this complex situation? Previous Republican administrations have set the stage for better relations.

President Nixon and his national security adviser, Henry Kissinger, effectively untangled the Taiwan issue with the Shanghai Communiqué in 1972. This pivotal document clarified that the U.S. acknowledges China’s claim that Taiwan is part of it, a position the U.S. government does not dispute.

Following Nixon’s lead, American military presence, including nuclear capabilities, was quickly withdrawn from Taiwan. Moreover, Taiwan lost its U.N. seat to mainland China, a move rich in symbolic meaning, marking the inception of the “One China Policy.” Their aim was to extract the U.S. from China’s ongoing internal strife, which they largely achieved.

Sadly, recent years have seen efforts to destabilize Nixon’s achievements as various supporters of Taiwan attempt to undermine these arrangements. Actions during Trump’s first term didn’t help, and Biden’s comments have only compounded the situation, resulting in some unfortunate miscommunication regarding U.S.-Taiwan relations.

Currently, the Trump administration seems to be adopting a different stance on Taiwan. I mean, recent assessments hint at a cautious strategy that prioritizes avoiding direct military involvement in potential conflicts across the Strait.

It’s clear Trump isn’t fully on board with the Taiwan support narrative. The government recently hesitated to endorse Biden’s claims on safeguarding the island, even delaying aid and halting exchanges with Taiwan. This nuance in China’s stance should not be underestimated. Opposing Taiwan’s independence aligns with the spirit of the “One China” policy born from the Shanghai Communiqué.

Mild adjustments in U.S. policy could effectively stabilize the tense U.S.-China relationship. Other strategies could involve scaling back high-level visits or withdrawing military agencies from Taiwan, thereby promoting cross-strait dialogue. Additionally, reassessing the ongoing military buildup in nearby regions like Guam or the Philippines might be prudent, while Taiwan should continue to bolster its defense.

Common sense suggests that an ascent of China will drive its efforts toward unification with Taiwan. For the U.S. to draw red lines on this matter, especially in today’s nuclear landscape, could be imprudent.

Perhaps the best route to ensure Taiwan’s continued autonomy would be for the U.S. to step back and allow both sides of the Strait to resolve their disputes—a notion that seems increasingly accepted by even Taiwan’s elites. Many Americans are also weary of getting involved in someone else’s civil conflicts.

On the other hand, negotiating with China over technology and market access is a separate issue that requires careful deliberation. Preparing for military confrontations in the Taiwan Strait, however, should be entirely off the table.